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2012 Kentucky Derby Picks

El Padrino to Win

5/5/12

The Kentucky Derby is a great race for bettors. It's a race that allows bettors to roll the dice a little in hopes of a nice pay day. One need only look back to last year and Animal Kingdom as an example. With 20 horses running, it takes just about a perfect trip to win, which is why this race is among the best when it comes to making a potential score. You can toss the favorites without much worry and still stand a very good chance. Doesn't mean a favorite won't win, but historically, it's unlikely.

Our betting approach to the Kentucky Derby is always the same. Toss the most talked about favorites and try and find 6 horses with a shot to group together in exacta and trifecta boxes. We've cashed nicely in 2 of the last 3 years and hope to do it again this year. We tend to look for strong closers to use, horses that kick it into gear late as the early speed fades. You can play it safe and use a favorite or two but we're going to completely toss Bodemeister and Union Rags in hopes that they have rough trips. The highest priced horse we'll use, according to the morning line, is Gemologist.

Before we get to the 6 horses we'll use, we have to pick a winner. While we likely won't be making a win bet, what fun would it be if we didn't go out on a limb and pick a winner, if only for bragging rights. Our pick to win the 138th Run for the Roses is El Padrino. El Padrino fits into the "what have you done for me lately" category. Just like the betting public tends to only remember a football teams last game, the horse betting public follows suit by placing added emphasis on an entries last race.

El Padrino was a colt to watch a few months back. But his performance last time out in the Florida Derby (4th) has bettors backing off. That presents bettors with some fantastic value if you believe he can rebound. We do. This is a big colt with a legitimate late kick. Keep an eye on the weather. 2 of his 3 wins were over a wet track. Current weather reports suggest showers are possible both Friday and Saturday. If it looks as though it will be a wet track, rather than bet the race via the pari mutuals, where your price will change, you can lock in your odds early at a sportsbook like 5 Dimes. El Padrino is currently 23/1 there. Those odds will drop if there's any hint of rain.

Here is a list, in order of preference, of the Entries we will use.

16 El Padrino

14 Hansen

15 Gemologist

3 Take Charge Indy

10 Daddy Nose Best

11 Alpha

We may consider using a 7th entry, if we did, it would be 19 I'll have another. We'll use the above 6, possibly 7, in an exacta box and possibly a trifecta box. We may also make a small play on El Padrino to win as we continue to watch the weather.

Don't go crazy. Have fun. Derby day is one of the most exciting days of the year. All of the build up, the day long coverage, profiles of every horse, sub plots galore. All for an event that is over in the blink of an eye. Good luck whether you use our picks or not. Enjoy!

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