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ACC Football Pick
Georgia Tech hosts Miami this week in an ACC clash that kicks off at 3pm est. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are a hefty -14 point favorite as of Monday night, at both SBG Global and Betonline. The game opened -13.5 at most books however betonline posts their openers long before anyone else and they opened Georgia Tech -10, which was quickly hammered by early bettors. The betting trends at sportsbook.ag would agree with the move as 88% of the wager taken as of Monday night, are on the Georgia Tech side.
The Hurricanes had their eyes set on an improved season after finishing 6-6 last year. Things haven't gone any better for them though, made evident by a 39-point loss at Kansas State a couple weeks ago. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a big 56-20 win against Virginia. They played Virginia Tech tough in their opener, but that game isn't looking to great now that VT lost to Pittsburgh.
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A main reason that Georgia Tech is such large favorites is their rushing game which ranks No. 3 in the country at 374 yards per game. They are actually averaging 465 yards in their last two games. That equals more time with the ball and tired defenses. In Miami (FL)'s loss to KSU they gave up 288 yards on the ground and the Wildcats only average 250 per game. That definitely isn't good news for the Hurricanes.
The Yellow Jackets have four different runners with over 100 yards but the main ball carriers are QB Tevin Washington and RB Zach Laskey. The two have rush for a combined 440 yards and five TDs. All of their top runners have a yards per carry rate over 6.5. Because of this running game, Washington hasn't had to pass it all that much attempting just 34 passes in three games. With the previous stat about the Hurricanes rush defense, Washington should be able to get by with minimum pass attempts in this game.
The Hurricanes will need quarterback Stephen Morris to step his game up if they want any chance of winning. When Georgia Tech lost to Virginia Tech, it was because of the arm of Logan Thomas, not his legs. Morris has 633 passing yards on the year, but his two TDs and two INTs aren't going to cut it. He has an array of receivers at his disposal with six of them having at least seven catches and raniging from 61 to 113 receiving yards. RBs Duke Johnson and Mike James have been the offensive leaders thus far for the Hurricanes. Johnson is averaging 9.2 ypc for 248 yards and four TDs while James has 158 yards on 32 carries. It will take a balanced attack to stay in the game against GT.
For the most part, the Yellow Jacket defense has been pretty stout, not allowing over 20 points in a game yet, a stat that isn't likely to change after playing Miami (FL).
Last year, things were a little different. Jacory Harris was still at the helm and Miami (FL) controlled the game in a 24-7 win. Washington only managed 99 total yards in that contest, but could easily double that number in this game. Miami has won three straight games in this match up, but that will likely change in this one. The spread in their last six games has ranged from 2 to 4.5 points, and this game is in double digits. These teams look much different than in year's past.
The favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings and the under has hit four times in the last five games between them.
College football is funny, if you follow it from a media perspective. The media can be a good indication of how the general public thinks. Sports writers, like the public, tend to overreact to the most recent games. If you read any coverage of the Hurricanes in the media after week 1, you read about how the Hurricanes were back. Then a week later, they failed to show up against Kansas State and became dead in the water.
When you couple the Miami performance against Kansas State with the Georgia Tech blowout of Virginia last week, you end up with Georgia Tech favored by almost two touchdowns. But you have to remember that no team that looks great one week, is really as great as they looked, while teams that looked bad, are rarely as bad as they looked.
Follow along here. Georgia Tech blew out Virginia, (and Presbyterian) however, Virginia beat Penn State by 1. Penn State LOST to Ohio U. Georgia Tech lost to Virginia Tech in week 1. Impressive until you consider that Virginia Tech was hammered by Pittsburgh this past week, and Pittsburgh has lost to Youngstown State, 31-17 and Cincinnati 34-10. Is Pitt the team that was hammered by Youngstown or is Pitt the team that hammered Virginia Tech?? By the way, Youngstown managed to just squeak by Albany this week. Who?
You see where we're going here? These are two ACC teams that recruit some very good talent. They have had similar years the past couple of seasons with Tech winning 8 last year and 6 the year before, while Miami won 6 last year and 7 the year before. Miami has won the last 3 by scores of 24-7, 35-10 and 33-17. Miami was favored by -2.5 twice and -4.5 once.
Miami is banged up and that run defense needs to improve big time against Georgia Tech. We just don't think the changes that have taken place on these two teams from last year to this, warrants such a large swing in the line. Miami lost one game, all of last season by more than 13 points and that was the Sun Bowl loss to Notre Dame. Miami +14
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