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NFL Thanksgiving Day

NFL Picks

Texans vs. Lions

Redskins vs. Cowboys

Patriots vs. Jets

11/22/12

Thanksgiving and having a little wager on some football games go hand in hand. It's really the only time during the year where we'd say go ahead and pluck a peanut or two down on a few games even if you don't feel strongly about them. Make the plays for a fraction of what you would normally wager if you don't feel strongly about them. But not having a little wager on the Thanksgiving day games almost seems, well, un-American! So here, we'll offer our opinion on each of the NFL Thanksgiving Day games.

 

Texans -3 over Lions  - Yeah, we know, never bet against the Lions on Thanksgiving day. The truth of the matter is that the Lions are no better than .500 in the history of this game and in recent years have been flat out blown off the field. So toss that Lions and Thanksgiving fallacy. Instead, handicap the game based on the merits of both teams. The fact that the Texans struggled and were lucky to get by the Jags last week is keeping this number down. But let's face it, the Texans are a 9-1 football team on their way to the playoffs where they will likely have home field advantage throughout and a good chance to advance to the Super Bowl while the Lions are a below average team that ranks near the bottom in many important statistical categories. Perhaps no stat tells the story better than turnover margin. Texans +8 and Lions -7.

 

Redskins +3.5 over Cowboys - Speaking of turnovers......Redskins +9 and the Cowboys -9. But this could be an example of two teams headed in different directions. The Cowboys have won two in a row and 3 of the last 5 while the Skins have dropped 3 of the last 4 and 4 of the last 6. But neither of these teams has been able to beat good teams this year. Neither of these teams is going anywhere this year, though both are still alive in the very wide open NFC East making this one a biggie. The Cowboys were once near the bottom of the NFL in many major categories but their numbers are improving as each week goes by. Still  they are a long ways off from being where they need to be. This looks like an even matchup. We see only a few books that still have the +3.5 here and that 1/2 point could be the difference between a win and a push as this looks like a field goal game. We'll take the Skins.

 

Patriots -6.5 over Jets - This one may not be as easy as it looks. The Jets seem to play the Pats tough and lost by just a field goal in Foxboro earlier in the year, which is closer than any other team came to the Pats in the Pats 7 wins this year. The Jets are 4-6 and still alive in the AFC East making this a crucial divisional matchup. At +7 or more, we'd have to take a closer look at the Jets here. But at less than a TD, we have a hard time bucking the Pats. They have been an offensive machine this year and you really have to question whether the Jets inept offense can keep up here. Who would you rather trust with your money, Mark Sanchez or Tom Brady? Rex Ryan or Bill Belichick? We'll take the Pats.

Good Luck whichever side your on today and more importantly, Happy Thanksgiving!

 

 

 

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