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Week 11 NFL Picks

11/18/12

Here we go around the NFL and offer a selection on each game. We also generally offer best bets, however this week found it difficult to come up with anything. We are starting to see the real contenders step up though which should make it interesting down the stretch. This is the time of year we start to pay more attention to the NFL so watch for potential NFL Key Releases in the coming weeks.

 

Redskins -3.5 over Eagles - Want no part of this Eagles team. -11 in turnover margin, 2nd to last in the NFL for offensive yards per point, (essentially tied with the Chiefs in that category) and a lame duck coach with one foot out the door. Technically both teams are still alive in the NFC East and the playoff picture, but it's the Redskins in our opinion, that still have a legitimate shot. Our model likes the Skins by 11.

 

Packers -3 -115 over Lions - Another game where our model likes one team by 11. That team would be the Packers. The Lions 4 wins have come against the Rams, Eagles, Seahawks and Jags. The Packers have beaten the Bears, Saints and Texans. Nuff said.

 

Falcons -9.5 over Cardinals - After winning 4 straight to start the year the Cards have now dropped 5 in a row. The Falcons needed that loss last week. Now it's back to winning.

 

Bucs -1 over Panthers - No rocket science here. Simply a matter of taking the better team to win. Bucs +11 in turnover margin to Panthers -5. A defensive yards per point number of 17.3 to the Panthers 14.4. An offensive ypp number of 12.7 to the Panthers 18.5 (27th in the NFL). It goes on and on.

 

Browns +8 over Cowboys - Cowboys -9 in turnover margin. They'll find a way to make a mistake that allows the Browns to sneak in under the number here.

 

Jets +3.5 over Rams - This is one the Jets can win. With little else to say here, I'll use this space to once again suggest that the Jets use Tebow as a fullback to become the grind it out run first team Rex Ryan has always wanted to be. Seriously, the guy is 240 lbs and solid as a rock. He'd be good for 3 to 4 yards per carry.

 

Patriots -9 over Colts - America has found a new team to back. 69% of the action at sportsbook.ag is on the Colts in this one. Wow. Colts have won 4 in a row. But against the Browns, Titans, Dolphins and Jags. Have to side with Brady in what could be an aerial shootout. Pats +15 in turnover margin. Colts -9. Luck not so lucky this week. Oh, and our model says 42-10, Pats.

 

Texans -15 over Jags - Taking double digits in an NFL game is always tempting. Not here.

 

Bengals -3.5 over Chiefs - Chiefs should be a touchdown underdog to just about every other team in the NFL. Can't remember the last NFL team that was this bad. Check out that -20 turnover margin number as well as being dead last in BOTH offensive and defensive yards per point. Has that ever happened before?

 

Saints -4.5 over Raaiders - Before we start talking Saints and playoffs let's keep in mind they have the 49ers, Falcons, Giants and Bucs on deck with two of those on the road. No room for error for the Saints, but they should grab this one. Model says Saints by 13. By 25 when only using data from last 5 games.

 

Broncos -7 -115 over Chargers - Chargers are 4-5 and technically still in it. But two of their 4 wins were against the Chiefs and the other 2 were against the Titans and Raiders. They've also lost to the Browns. Any "good" team they have faced has beaten them by  TD or more.

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