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NFL Week 8 Pick

 

Here we go around the NFL and make a prediction on each game. Those that stand out as having some value will be designated as Best Bets. There are a couple of games each week that aren't included on this page as they are written up in a stand alone article which can be found on the home page.

 

10/28/12

 

Rams +7 over Pats - This game takes place in London, which makes it an interesting spot. The Pats own the better offense but defensively these two are on par. Our score prediction model sees this one very close to the number, so we'll grab the TD here, but nothing strong.

Titans -3.5 over Colts - Another game where our model sees it close to the number. The Colts are still a work in progress. Just going with the lesser of two evils here as neither team very good. Like the above game, nothing strong here.

Jags +14.5 over Packers - Getting two td's in an NFL game is an automatic "take". We'll never lay that kind of wood in an NFL game. That being said, we do have conflicting predictions here as our model predicts a 35-10 Packer win while our more traditional methods say this one comes in under the number. Be careful.

Browns +3 over Chargers - All signs point towards a close one, including our models prediction of a 1 point game. Plus the Chargers should be avoided like the plague after their collapse against the Broncos.

Falcons +3 over Eagles - Best Bet - Of course, nothing is ever black and white when handicapping the NFL. You always have to expect the unexpected. Still, this is a game where it appears the wrong team is favored. The Eagles simply aren't very good. The Falcons are among the best in the NFL. Using yards per point numbers to measure, the Falcons are #4 offensively and defensively. The Eagles are #15 defensively and DEAD LAST offensively with a ypp number of 22! Our model concurs, with a predicted Falcon win by 3.

Seahawks +2.5 over Lions - Both teams near the bottom of the pack offensively, but one of these teams has a defense, and that's the Seahawks. This looks to be another game where the wrong team is favored. We'll gladly take points with the better team.

Dolphins +2.5 over Jets  - Have to be leery of a Jet letdown here after last weeks emotional loss to New England, a game they should have won.

Bears -7.5 over Panthers - Best Bet - The Panthers anemic offense will be no match for the #1 defense in the NFL (according to our numbers).

Chiefs -1.5 over Raiders - The late Pete Axhelm would have called this a smashed windshield game. Meaning you could leave two tickets on your dashboard and someone would smash your windshield and leave the tickets! We'll take the Chiefs here simply to go against the public.

Broncos -6 over Saints - Our methods conflict here as our traditional methods call for a tight game while our model says it's a Bronco blowout by 25 points in a game that flies over the posted total of 55.5. Manning may bring out the best in Brees, but we'll go with our model in this spot.

 

 

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