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Oklahoma

vs.

Iowa State

Big 12 Football Pick

11/3/12

A lot of people will be taking the Sooners in this game mainly because they are coming off a loss against Notre Dame. In the game after their loss to Kansas State, they went to Texas Tech and beat a solid team by 21 points. Iowa State has played good teams tough at home this year and know the Sooners will be gunning for them. The Sooners are -11 point home favorites at 5 Dimes Sportsbook and 82% of the action at sportsbook.ag is on the Sooners.

The game could end up very much like last year's battle in Norman when the Sooners won 26-6, but came in as 29-point favorites. Landry Jones tossed two picks in that game and no TDs which is why it ended up being so close. Iowa State's offense is once again struggling and that will make things even harder for them. They scored 35 points against Baylor last week, but the Bears have possibly the worst defense in the Big 12. Without consistent QB play, their offense has struggled in big games as seen in the three losses. Oklahoma hasn't really had too many problems moving the ball this year, just scoring as they only managed 13 points against Notre Dame while Jones threw for 356 yards.

Even though he's thrown for 2,009 yards this season, Jones only has 12 touchdowns. No matter, the Sooners are still scoring over 40 points per game. A lot of that is due to the running game and backup QB Blake Bell who comes into the game in short yardage situations. Bell has nine rushing TDs this year to go with 36 carries for 84 yards. Damien Williams leads OU with 581 rushing yards and seven TDs. However, he managed just 13 carries and 29 yards against the Fighting Irish last weekend. Kenny Stills is Jones's top option, but Jalen Saunders had a career game last week with 15 grabs for 181 yards. He made plenty of plays and will likely see an expanded role going forward.

The Cyclones will have a tough time stopping and scoring against Oklahoma. Steele Jantz had career numbers last week with five TDs and 381 yards, but again that was against Baylor. In his last start before this game, he only threw for 73 yards with three INTs against Texas Tech. He'll need to have another successful and turnover-prone day for ISU to have a chance. WR Jarvis West stepped up for Jantz as he caught his first three TDs of the year. The Cyclones have a few receivers that can be the top guy on any given day. The running duties will be split between James White and Shontrelle Johnson. The two have combined for 649 yards and three TDs. Obviously, you'd like to see more rushing TDs from them.

Iowa State is 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight conference games while Oklahoma has covered in three of their last four games. The Sooners are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Cyclones and have been favorites in every one of those games. Points wise, the under has hit in their last four contests.

We have conflicting trends here as our model predicts this game right around the number while other methods we use say Iowa State is the side. Iowa State has actually played a more difficult schedule and has some pretty good numbers despite that fact. They have played some of the more explosive offensives in the nation and held those teams to their lowest offensive point productions of the season.

Iowa State may have one of their best teams in years, yet, they could be in danger of not making a bowl game They have Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas and West Virginia remaining. Pencil in a win against Kansas but that's no lock.

We'll likely have to stay away from this one as Oklahoma should be in a nasty mood and can be explosive. We'll make a weak recommendation here on the Cyclones based on the numbers that suggest they can play The Sooners tough. An opinion only though. Iowa State +11

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