Pick With Analysis
Oklahoma had higher hopes than this before their season started. Last year, they faltered down the stretch in the Big 12, but they still had 2012 for their final season with Landry Jones. Unfortunately for them, Kansas State had other plans beating the Sooners in Norman. Now, they have slim hopes of winning the Big 12 if KSU is unable to grab a win against Texas this weekend. With yet another possible disappointing season, Oklahoma has to finish up at new conference arrivals, TCU. The Horned Frogs have played inconsistent in the Big 12 this year, winning most recently at Texas, but getting killed at Oklahoma State. Winning at West Virginia, but losing at home to Iowa State. It's been a season of ups and downs and now they get to host the Sooners.
Oklahoma comes in as 6.5-point favorites in most places. A part of that line not being higher is that TCU will have two days more rest and that Oklahoma hasn't covered (or looked all that impressive) in three straight games. The Sooners barely grabbed a win at West Virginia and came from behind to force overtime in the battle of Oklahoma last weekend.
Jones is doing everything he can for the team. He's attempted 122 passes for 1,054 yards and nine TDs in the last two games. Yes, those are his numbers from the last two games. His receivers benefitted greatly as well, with Kenny Stills, Justin Brown and Jalen Saunders all having some of the best games of the season in those past two games. Their ground game hasn't been as good, though. Damien Williams had 92 yards against West Virginia, but only 11 vs. OK State. Brennan Clay had seven yards at WVU and led the team with 59 yards against the Cowboys. Running game or not, Jones will keep throwing the ball enough to win games. As you can see, the recent struggles of the Sooners don't fall to the offense. The defense has had trouble containing most teams.
They let the Notre Dame game slip away, and they've allowed the opponent to stay around in the last two games. TCU has only scored 30 points in their last two games, but have shown earlier this season that they can put up points (49 at Baylor).
Trevone Boykin's numbers have diminished since taking over as starting QB five games into the season. He was averaging close to 300 yards and three TDs per game in his first three starts. Since then, he hasn't thrown for over 254 yards or two TDs in a game. Last week against Texas, he only attempted nine passes as the Horned Frogs ran the ball 48 times. They will most certainly have to pass the ball more against Oklahoma. Boykin's problem has been interceptions this season. He has thrown an interception in all but one start this year and has four in his last four games which is the same amount of touchdowns he has in that period. The RB duo of B.J. Catalon and Matthew Tucker will be used plenty, but if TCU gets down early which is very possible, Boykin will be forced to pass. To stay close in this game, he'll need to minimize his turnovers.
The Sooners are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS loss, but only 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win. The Horned Frogs aren't any better going 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win and 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The over has hit seven straight times for Oklahoma in conference play and five times in their last seven road games. Also, the over is 9-4 in TCU's last 13 home games.
We have the Sooners winning this one by 5, so very close to the number. So, just a lean. TCU +6.5