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Ole Miss

vs.

Alabama

SEC Football Pick

9/29/12

Alabama is destroying teams at this point and it's not a question about if they can beat the spread, it's a question of if they want to or how much they want to win by. Ole Miss has experience against ranked teams this year. A couple weeks ago they lost to Texas after giving up 66 points at home. On the road in Tuscaloosa will not be much easier for their defense.

In last year's matchup, Alabama went to Mississippi and dominated the Rebels 52-7 after being just 27-point favorites. Even though Alabama has won eight straight games in this meeting, Ole Miss is actually 5-2 against the spread over the last seven games. So far this year, the Crimson Tide has gone all out against their big conference opponents (Michigan 41-14, Arkansas 52-0) and lightened up against Western Kentucky and Florida Atlantic. This game falls under in-conference opponent.

At times, it's not even fair in these games. AJ McCarron has been efficient throwing for 819 yards and 10 TDs. He hasn't had to do much as the Crimson Tide running game is close to unstoppable. They have 816 rushing yards as a team and 10 rushing TDs. T.J. Yeldon (254 yds) and Eddie Lacy (232 yds) split the majority of the load and lead the way. If Ole Miss let Texas go for 676 yards in their home stadium, it's a wonder how much Bama will be able to get on them.

In that Texas game, the Rebels were actually able to run the ball quite well notching almost 200 yards on the ground. It might not be as easy against a bigger and tougher Alabama defense. Bo Wallace has gotten the job done for the most part this season, throwing for 717 yards and seven TDs to go along with 179 yards and two TDs on the ground. His downfall is interceptions which he has thrown four of (three against Texas) this season. Also, he picked up a shoulder injury last week against Tulane, but it doesn't look like anything serious. Jeff Scott is the rebels lead running back, although with only has 31 carries, he still has managed 268 yards and three TDs.

Ole Miss is coming off the coattails of an impressive 39-0 win at Tulane and will hope to carry that momentum into this game. They are 3-1 against the spread compared to 2-2 for Alabama. However, the Rebels are 0-4 ATS in their last four conference games while the Crimson Tide is 8-2 in their last 10 conference games. Still, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four matchups between the two teams. In their last five meetings at Alabama, the under has hit four times.

Ole Miss stepped up in class once and was pounded by Texas 66-31. Alabama can name the score here but it's a very dangerous game to bet. Every square bettor in the world with access to a bookmaker will be betting Alabama this week. Hey, they may even win. But sooner or later, as the Bama lines continue to inflate, that strategy will bite them in the ass. Could this be the week? We want no part of this one from a betting standpoint. But it's also interesting to note, looking ahead at Alabama's schedule, that not much stands between Alabama and another Title game appearance other than a November 3rd road game at LSU. No Opinion

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