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Super Bowl 47
Analysis and Score Predictions
The Baltimore Ravens will take on the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 47 in New Orleans this Sunday. The 49ers are currently -3.5 point favorites at 5 Dimes Sportsbook with a total of 47.5. The worlds largest sportsbook, sportsbook.ag has seen 64% of their action thus far come in on the Ravens side as well as 53% of their totals action on the over.
So is this the matchup you wanted? Is this the matchup you predicted? We're you sick of the two main storylines, as we were, before the matchups were even official? Those being the Harbaugh brothers and the Ray Lewis story. Enough is enough. It gets old pretty quickly.
We'll give you a few different predictions below using various methods. Before we get to that however, we'd make a suggestion to our readers. Unless you have an angle here, a strong feeling one way or the other for whatever reason, it may be best to pass the side bet completely and focus on the prop bets. There are more prop bets for this game than any other game in any sport all year and no sportsbook posts more props than 5 Dimes Sportsbook. Do your homework and you can find an edge. There are simply too many props for any sportsbooks to track.
One shortcut to doing your own homework is to take advantage of other sharp players work. Monitor as many lines from as many different books as possible. Watch and see which props are moving in which direction and then try and find the old number available at another sportsbook. There are some sharps that absolutely destroy the props each and every year. Like taking candy from a baby.
Now, on to the game.
For us, this game is pretty much a coin flip. We see no strong edge either way here. Both teams deserve to be here. The 49ers were the better team from start to finish, but the Ravens, like the Giants last year, got healthy and hot at just the right time. If we look at our NFL score prediction model, it tells the Ravens story well as it picks up on their recent success. The Score prediction using season to date stats is San Fran 25 Baltimore 20. However, when using data from the last 7 games it comes up 33-26 Baltimore and when using data from only the last 5 games, it's 38-25, Baltimore.
A case can be made for either side here. The case for the 49ers would simply be that they have been the better team from start to finish. They rank better than the Ravens in most major categories with the exception of offensive passing yards. They rank higher in rushing yards offensively and stopping the run defensively, the two most important categories in any football game.
The case for the Ravens would obviously be that they are now healthy and playing their best football of the season and while the 49ers may rank a tad higher in most major stat categories, it's just a tad and this is just one game.
Before the season started we predicted that the 49ers would win the Super Bowl. In football predicting circles, it's a cardinal sin to back off of that prediction at this point. That however, is exactly what we are going to do. From a statistical handicapping standpoint, this game is simply too close not to take the points. One major advantage for the Ravens may very well be the QB. As great as Kaepernick has been, it's still only his 10th NFL start. Flacco has the big game experience and plenty of weapons. Defensively, the Ravens have already beaten Manning and Brady in consecutive weeks. Why not add Kaepernick to the pile.
Our model tells the story from a what have you done for me lately standpoint as the predictions favors the Ravens more strongly using more recent data. The less data used, i.e. from 7 games to 5, the larger the predicted margin of victory. We'll side with the team in better current form who also has, in our opinion, the better QB. Both teams were contenders last year, but it's the Ravens who have been perennial contenders, in the mix, year after year. Good chance they break through here. While were at it, we'll also make a small play on the OVER as the NFL season has been far from a defensive showcase this year, with both of these teams participating in some high scoring shoot outs. Ravens +4 and Over 47.5
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