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Texas Tech

vs.

TCU

10/20/12

Texas Tech got a much needed blowout win over West Virginia last weekend after they failed to challenge Oklahoma the previous week. Their next two games don't get any easier, travelling to TCU and Kansas State. TCU did the exact same thing to Baylor winning 49-21 after losing to Iowa State at home the week before.

Both schools have played very good defense this year, excluding their losses in which they each gave up 20 more points than their season average. The Red Raiders have a slight edge on the offensive end, only because of freshman QB Trevone Boykin making just his third start of his career for TCU.

Boykin played great last week against Baylor tossing for 261 yards and four TDs. The problem with that is that the Baylor defense is probably the worst in the Big 12. Texas Tech has been much better as seen last week when they held Geno Smith and the Mountaineers to just 14 points. In Boykin's first start at home, he threw for one TD and three INTs against Iowa State. The difference between him and former starting QB Casey Pachall is that he uses his feet well. Boykin leads the team with two rushing TDs and has 217 yards on the ground. B.J. Catalon has been the main RB out of the backfield as of late getting 30 carries for 165 yards in the past two games. Wide receivers Brandon Carter and Josh Boyce will be Boykin's top options as they each have four receiving touchdowns.

Texas Tech QB Seth Doege is going to have to deal with a TCU defense that just picked off Baylor's Nick Florence four times last week. Doege hasn't made many mistakes this year throwing for 1,891 yards at a 70.7% rate to go with 21 TDs and seven INTs. His zero touchdown, three interception performance against Oklahoma was by far his worst game of the season. Doege's TDs are spread out between three receivers: Darrin Moore, Eric Ward and tight end Jace Amaro who have combined for 16 TDs. Those three along with a three-pronged rushing attack is not easy to stop. Kenny Williams, Eric Stephens Jr. and SaDale Foster all have at least 55 carries, 291 yards and two TDs. For three RBs on one team, it's crazy how identical their numbers are.

The Red Raiders are a solid 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. The Horned Frogs haven't been as good going 0-5 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a winning road record. The over has hit eight times in TCU's last 11 home games, and six times in Texas Tech's last eight road games.

TCU has some nice numbers but it's Texas Tech with the more impressive schedule. After a cake walk first 3 games, Tech has played a good Iowa State team, Oklahoma and West Virginia, beating WVA and Iowa State. There are no such teams on the TCU dance card, other than Iowa State, who they lost to. Texas Tech simply looks to be the better team here and the spot is small enough that we're simply being asked to pick a straight up winner. The game opened TCU favored by 2 and is not Tech favored by -1.5 to -2 and we agree with the move. Texas Tech -1.5

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