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Texas A&M
vs.
Alabama
SEC Football Pick
11/10/12
The only two teams Texas A&M has lost to this year has been Florida and LSU. The only team Alabama has had trouble with is LSU who they barely got by last weekend 21-17 on a late TD. Alabama beat Mississippi State at home 38-7. Texas A&M beat Mississippi State on the road, 38-13. Even with all of these similarities, the Crimson Tide still sit at close to two TD favorites at 5 dimes sportsbook. Obviously, Alabama is next to impossible to beat when they play in Tuscaloosa. This game will show a lot about how good the Aggies actually are. Currently, the betting action at sportsbook.ag is a 60/40 split in favor of Alabama, according to their betting trends.
Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel will need to play better than he did against LSU, that's for certain. He threw three interceptions in that game and ran for just 27 yards on 17 carries. Considering Alabama's defense is slightly better, this could be trouble for Johnny Football again. Sure, his numbers are awesome on the year with 2,527 passing yards, 922 rushing yards and 31 total TDs, but that's what happens against weak defenses. Against Florida and LSU he has one total TD. Ben Malena actually ran well in that LSU game, but he still only had 12 carries. WRs Mike Evans and Ryan Swope will be keys in the passing game. They both had plenty of catches in the two losses, but again, couldn't find the end zone.
On the other side of the ball, the Aggies aren't the best as they've been bailed out multiple times by the offense. They gave up 57 points to Louisiana Tech and 27 to Ole Miss in back to back weeks, but thanks to Manziel, the Aggies still won those games. The same can't be said about their two losses.
Alabama shouldn't have much trouble moving the ball. Their defensive and offensive lines are too big for anyone and it shows. T.J. Yeldon and Eddie Lacy have combined for 1,404 yards and 15 TDs on the ground. Really, there's no one in college football that can stop the Crimson Tide running game. The two RBs are averaging over six yards per carry. With that running game comes open passing lanes for AJ McCarron. He wasn't great against LSU, but led the game-winning drive which is all that matters. McCarron now has 19 touchdowns on the year and zero INTs. When a team can run the ball and not turn it over, they are very hard to stop. I mean, that's why they are two TD favorites, right?
A&M will definitely put up a fight, but how much of one is the question. The big number that sticks out for Texas A&M is that they are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. That includes being 0-4 ATS in their last four games as an underdog. Alabama isn't much better going 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. The under is 3-0-1 in the Crimson Tide's last four home games and 5-1 in the Aggies last six games against a team with a winning record.
Our model predicts a 32-13 Alabama win. With the line now down from an opener of 16 at Betonline and 14 everywhere else, the value now lies with the Crimson Tide in a game we think Alabama runs away with in the end. Alabama -13.5
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