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Texas

vs.

Oklahoma State

Big 12 Football Pick

9/29/12

We'll find out very soon just how good Oklahoma State is. Compared to last year, both teams are seemingly going in opposite directions. While the Cowboys are 2-1, they gave up 59 points in their only loss at Arizona. Their two wins were against Savannah State and Louisiana-Lafayette. Texas on the other hand has looked like they deserve their No. 12 ranking. In their last game they went off for 66 points at Ole Miss. While defense was the Longhorns main threat in 2011, their offense has come around in 2012.

Quarterback David Ash is at the forefront of their suddenly potent attack. He's completed 76.4 percent of his passes for 703 yards and seven TDs with no interceptions. On the ground, Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron each have 37 carries, over 200 yards and three TDs. If OK State can't stop Arizona from scoring, you better believe Texas will be able to rack up a good amount of points.

That's where the Cowboys offense comes in. The starting QB is still up in the air for this game though as Wes Lunt is dealing with a knee injury. J.W. Walsh started the last game and could easily be given the green light again. Neither QB has a real edge, other than Walsh's rating and that's mainly because Lunt has two more interceptions than him. The OK State QBs have combined for 1,135 yards and 11 TDs in three games. Brandon Weeden who? Their ground game is off the hook as well, averaging 7.0 yards per carry as a team. Joseph Randle leads the way with 50 carries and 335 yards and has the same amount of TDs (four) as Jeremy Smith and Desmond Roland. Again, 84 of OK State's points have come against a FCS school though.

Oklahoma State won on the road last year 38-26 as the Longhorns couldn't keep up offensively with the spread attack from Weeden and crew. David Ash also had two interceptions in that game. He hasn't thrown one yet this season. The Cowboys have covered three of the past four games in this series. They have also beat Texas two straight times, although the Longhorns won the eight previous games.

Texas has stepped up big this year in their wins, covering their last two games, most impressively beating Ole Miss by 35 points as only 10-point favorites. OK State did the same to UL Lafayette, winning by 41 points as 22-point favorites.

The Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a bye week and 4-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Cowboys are also stellar after bye weeks, going 3-0-1 ATS in their last four. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five. A lot of the numbers point toward Texas here.

Neither team has been tested yet but that Arizona loss for Oklahoma State is telling. So is the fact that Texas is at the top of the charts in turnover margin differential while Oklahoma State is at the bottom. The Longhorns have a double revenge motive working in their favor here and with the spot at just -2.5, we're just being asked to pick a straight up winner. The difference here should be the defense. Both teams can put points on the board but only one team has shown that it might also be able to keep points off the board, and that's Texas. The Longhorns get their revenge. Texas -2.5

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