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Pick With Analysis
Texas Tech hits the road to take on Texas State this week. Texas State is fresh off their upset of the Houston Cougars as 37.5 point underdogs! They won the game 30-13 which means they beat the spread by 54.5 points. Whoa! Last weeks results obviously had an impact on this weeks line as the Red Raiders are just 17.5 point favorites at Sportsbook.ag and 5 Dimes.
Yet another game on this weeks board that could present us with some added value as a result of what happened last week. First of all, Texas Tech did what they were supposed to do last week. They hammered Northwestern State 44-6. Northwestern State is in the same conference as Texas State. That would be the Southland Conference, who lists among their members teams like Lamar and Nicholls. Surely you've heard of them.
Last season, Texas Tech beat Texas State 50-10. Texas Tech trailed at the half in that one, 10-9, before scoring 41 unanswered points in the 2nd half. The first half last year is a good indication of what can happen when you take an opponent lightly. Texas State also played Northwestern State (who TT beat 44-6 last week) last year and lost 23-10. Oh, and by the way, Northwestern State only won 5 games last year.
Hats off to Texas State to knocking off Houston last week, a team that was 13-1 a year ago. But let's be clear, it's not the same Houston team as last year. They lost a QB who happened to be the NCAA's all time leading passer, Case Keenum. They also lost their head coach and their offensive coordinator (the new guy, Mike Nesbitt resigned this week after losing to Texas State). Unlike Houston, Texas Tech not only retains their QB from last year, they actually have 2 capable QB's plus 8 other returning offensive starters from last years squad.
Texas States win last week over Houston can only hurt their chances this week. They will have the Red Raiders full attention. Last year, Texas Tech showed up for one half and scored 40 unanswered points. This year, they figure to show up from start to finish. The spot is low. We'd prefer -17 or less. Currently there are a couple of -17's left on the board. Texas Tech -17.
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