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Vikings
vs.
Packers
Wild Card Pick
1/5/12
The Packers and the Vikings get to tee it up once again this week in a Wild Card playoff game, only this time, it's the Packers hosting the game. The Packers are currently -7.5 at 5 Dimes Sportsbook, up from an opener of -7 -115 with a total of 46.
We're going to approach this game a little differently. Rather than concern ourselves with the current number of -7.5, we're going to write this up as one leg of a 7 point two team teaser. Blindly playing teasers is a good way to go broke. But there is a time and a place for them. Specifically come playoff time, and specifically when you can bring a home favorite down to pk while crossing the key numbers of 7,6,4 and 3, with the 7 and 3 being key. In fact, this was once so advantageous to the player. that many, if not most books now make you pay a premium in order to do this.
The feeling here is that you'll see a much different game and outcome this week, than last. For starters, the circumstances are now very different. Minnesota needed to win at home last week or the season was over. Green Bay had already clinched the Division but could have moved up to the #2 seed with a win. But the urgency wasn't there. The Packers were going to live to play another week regardless of the outcome. Not so this week as it's now do or die for both.
The Packers also went into last week without their leading receiver, Randall Cobb and let's face it, even without their season on the line, they almost pulled out a win in Minnesota last week. With the venue change, we just don't see the Vikings winning this game.
The Packers are 7-1 at home with a yards per point number of 12.3 on offense and 18.7 on defense for a +6.4 differential. The Vikings are 3-5 on the road with ypp numbers of 15.1 and and 14.8. That's pretty close to a 7 point margin between the two teams when using home and away numbers only, right around the current posted line, which makes it a stretch to lay the points in this one. But note that the Packers have outscored opponents by an average score of 29-17 at home this year. Also note that they won 6 of their 7 wins at home by a TD or more.
If you're looking for a play against the spread here, we'd have to recommend the Packers but only at -7 or better. So you may have to buy the half point as it doesn't look as though we'll see straight 7's before game time, but keep an eye out and watch the board.
So, opinion only (as of this writing) on the Packers -7 or better. Otherwise, look to use the Packers as one leg of a two team 7 point teaser, bringing them down to pk. As far as who to use as the other leg of the teaser, stay tuned! Likely the Bengals or Ravens.
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