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NFL WEEK 10

PICKS AND BEST BETS

 

Here we take a look around the NFL for week 10 and offer a selection on each game along with a comment or two. We also designate some games as best bets. The season is certainly flying by, as it always seems to do. The playoff picture is starting to take shape with many teams already in must win mode. Should be a fun stretch run.

 

11/11/12

 

Bills +11 over Pats - Hard to go against the Pats here especially since they beat the Bills by 20 in 3 of the last 4 games. To add to that, our NFL model likes the Pats by 20+. But sometimes, the NFL simply doesn't make sense. This is a pure go against the public play.

 

Giants -4 over Bengals - Best Bet - Bengals have dropped 3 in a row and 2 of those were the Dolphins and Browns. Giants should bounce back after losing to the Steelers last week. Giants have won following each of their other losses this year. Our model says 30-20 Giants.

 

Bucs -3 over Chargers - This is a Buc call based only on current form. Chargers dropped 3 in a row before beating the lowly Chiefs last week while the Bucs have won 3 of their last 4 with two of those coming on the road. Model says 28-21 Bucs.

 

Panthers +4 over Broncos - looking at the betting percentages at sportsbook.ag, this game is the most lopsided of them all this week in terms of the numbers of wagers on one team. In this case, 95% on the Broncos. If it looks to good to be true, it usually is. Another go against the public play.

 

Titans +6 over Dolphins - One rule we stick to when handicapping all sports is to never trust a bad team with your money. The Titans are a bad team. Thus, we would never play this game in the real world. That being said, if forced to make a play here, it's on the Titans simply because we can't trust the Dolphins laying points, despite the fact that their defensive yards per point number of 20 is among the best in the NFL.

 

Raiders +8 over Ravens - Ravens current pointspread slide is all the proof you need to see that this team has been over valued. It's not the same Ravens. Other than their first game of the year against the Bengals, when the Ravens have won this year, it hasn't been by large margins. The Raiders came within 3 of the Falcons in Atlanta and also beat the Steelers earlier in the year. They might be able to hang here.

 

Saints +2.5 over Falcons - Best Bet - Could this be the week? It might actually help the Falcons if they lost one just to get rid of all of that perfect season pressure. The Falcons have won a ton a close games this year. The Saints lost their first 4 games by 8, 7, 3 and 1. Since then, they are 3-1. In fact if we run our model and only take into account the last 5 games, the model predicts a Saints win by more than a TD. Call it a hunch.

 

Lions -2 over Vikings - Vikings have dropped 3 of the last 4. Lions have won 3 of the last 4. A division revenge game.

 

Jets +6 over Seahawks - Jets have dropped 4 of last 5. But when the Seahawks win, they don't win by much.

 

Cowboys -1.5 over Eagles - Perhaps the two biggest disappointments in the entire NFL this year. We think the Eagles are more of a mess than Dallas is.

 

49ers -11 over Rams - Not thrilled with laying double digits, but when the Rams have stepped up in class this year, Bears, Packers and Pats, it's been double digit losses. This is a step up in class.

 

 

 

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