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Wisconsin

vs.

Michigan State

Free Basketball Pick

2/16/12

Wisconsin hits the road to take on Michigan State in the Marquee game of the day in college basketball for February 16th, 2012. The Spartans are a 6 point home favorite at 5 Dimes Sportsbook with a posted total 115 points.

Lack of discipline is the death of many sportsbettors. The ability to stay away from a game you really want to play, a marquee game like this one, that you may watch on TV, etc. even when some of your methods may point towards a play. The key word here is "some".

Let's explain further. Right off the bat you have a situation that is favorable for a bet on Wisconsin. Anytime you have a top 5 team in the nation getting +6 points, you have a take a good hard look at that side. Add in a little added motivation, such as Michigan State having knocked off Wisky in their own building back on January 3rd, 63-60, a controversial win at that, and things really start looking up. Throw in our model, when run using season to date stats, has Michigan State winning, but by only 3, and you start to get a little excited.

But, any method of handicapping a game that only takes into account season to date stats is flawed. Things happen. Teams are rarely the same team in February that they were in November. Some get better, some get worse. Injuries also play a role. We run our model using only stats from the last 7 games to combat this problem. Doing so though, we come up with an 11 point Michigan State win. Uh oh. Buzz Kill.

That's enough to take us off this game. You hope, or in this case, we hope, that our handicapping is good enough, that over the long haul, we take ourselves off far more losers than winners. It's a killer when you take yourself off a game like this and it ends up being a winner, and if you take yourself of more winners than losers, well, then you obviously have a problem.

If you're own methods indicate a play on Wisky, by all means, fire away. No one would be shocked to see Wisconsin win this game straight up making the +6 a bonus. Quality dogs like this one can be among the best bets in all of sports. But we'll be rooting against you tonight if you bet on Wisky as we have taken ourselves off the game. Go Spartans! : )

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