Pick With Analysis
West Virginia visits Texas Tech on Saturday afternoon at 3:30 pm est. The Mountaineers are a -4.5 point road favorite at SBG Global with a total of 77. An incredible 99% of the early action at sportsbook.ag, the world's largest sportsbook is on the Mountaineers!
The Mountaineers are one of the hottest teams in the nation right now which is why they find themselves as road favorites at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders lost against Oklahoma last weekend and that may have something to do with it as well. West Virginia comes into this game scoring 52 points per game including 48 last week against what was thought to be a solid Texas defense. While Texas Tech may not be able to stop Geno Smith and company from scoring, they should be able to get enough points of their own as WVU's defense is as bad as their offense is good.
The aforementioned Geno Smith is putting up ridiculous numbers right now. In five games, he has 1,996 yards, a 81 percent completion rate and 24 TDs to zero INTs. The Heisman is his to lose if he keeps this up. Wide receivers Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin continue to slice right through defenses even though they know it's coming. The two have combined for 107 receptions already for 1,372 yards and 21 touchdowns. Wow. Since most defenses are going to focus on stopping the pass, the Mountaineers showed last week they can run the ball as well. Andrew Buie rushed for 207 yards and two TDs on 31 carries versus the Longhorns. Texas Tech has been solid defensively, but they faced a real offense last week in the Sooners and gave up 41 points.
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The Red Raiders can score the ball as well, although that hasn't been the case in the Big 12 so far as they have amassed just 44 points through two games. Seth Doege played well through his first four games, but against Oklahoma things weren't easy as he had just 203 yards with three interceptions and didn't find the end zone once. He still has 15 TDs and 1,392 yards on the year. At his disposal are six different receivers who all have at least 12 catches. They will come in handy against WVU. Texas Tech also runs the ball well with a trio of backs that have combined for over 800 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Like most West Virginia games this year, this one will be pretty high-scoring.
Even with all of the points, the Mountaineers are just 2-3 against the spread this year which isn't comforting as they come into this game as favorites. Still, in their first Big 12 road game last week, WVU took out Texas as 7.5 point underdogs. The Red Raiders were having a solid season covering their first four games of the year until Oklahoma contained them last week as just 4-point favorites.
West Virginia is an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last six road games while Texas Tech is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven conference games, although this will be the first time these two teams are going head-to-head. As expected with the Mountaineers, the over has hit plenty, including six times in their last eight road games. For the Red Raiders, the over has gone 8-2 in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.
This one looks fun. Offense vs. offense. Our mode shows Texas Tech on top 42-39 in a shootout, so we'll grab the +4 here with Texas Tech. But this is definitely NOT key release material for us and we'll instead be watching for mere entertainment!