Alabama
vs.
Miss State
College Football
Pick
11/16/13
Whatever doubts people had against Alabama, were once again shot down last weekend in a convincing 38-17 win over LSU. It’s hard to argue that the Crimson Tide are not the best team in the country. They’ll close the season with a couple Conference road tests and it starts with Mississippi State. Alabama is -25.5 point favorites on the road, at 5 dimes sportsbook, where you can bet the Game at reduced juice! The total is 52 points.
The Bulldogs are have a 4-5 record, but all five of those losses have come against ranked teams. That’s not saying a whole lot though, as their best win is against either Bowling Green or Kentucky. They are coming off a 51-41 loss at Texas A&M. It was the most points Mississippi State has scored all year in the SEC. Unfortunately for Dak Prescott and company, Alabama has a much better defense than the Aggies.
In the last five meetings between these teams, the Bulldogs have scored just 34 total points. Meanwhile, Alabama is averaging more than 30 points in those Games and covered in Four of them including last year’s 38-7 win at home.
There’s no reason why this Game won’t fall in line with the previous ones, making this a 35-10 type of Game, hence the spread between these teams. The difference this year it seems is that Alabama is scoring more. The Crimson Tide have scored at least 38 points in five straight Games including that 38 against LSU. Mississippi State lost 59-26 to LSU earlier this season which doesn’t look like a good precursor.
The Bulldogs may use two quarterbacks once again with Dak Prescott and Tyler Russell. Neither is all that accurate and both will struggle against this defense. Prescott leads the team in rushing, but it’s unlikely he’ll find much room against the Tide.
Alabama’s defense has been as good as advertised, allowing more than 10 points just twice this year. Getting past that double-digit marker could prove to be tough for the Bulldogs.
There’s not much that suggest Mississippi State can contain the Alabama offense at all, whether through ground or air. The Crimson Tide have a power rushing attack that no one can stop. T.J. Yeldon (862 rushing yards, 12 TDs) and Kenyan Drake (556 yards, seven TDs) shouldn’t have any problems. The same goes for AJ McCarron, who’s having another solid season and maybe his best yet. McCarron has 19 TDs to go with three INTs and completing a career best 69.4 percent of his passes. He hasn’t thrown an interception since September. He spreads it out plenty as well, with none of his receivers having more than 30 receptions.
Most of the money is on Alabama to cover on the road, and get a result much like last year. With the way they’ve been playing (Four straight covers), there’s no reason to believe they won’t win by 25 points. In fact, 98% of the action at 5dimes.com has come in on the Tide. No surprise there.
The Crimson Tide are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road Games and 4-1 ATS in their last five road Games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six home Games vs. a team with a winning road record, but just 1-4 ATS in their last five overall. The home team has covered in five of the last six meetings between these schools.
Our Score Prediction model has Alabama on top here by a score of 38-14. When we run the model using only the last 4 Games, it predicts a 47-11 final. So, really, not much to dig into here from a handiicapping perspective. Sure, all signs either point to playing Alabama to cover the big number, or passing all together. But these are tricky Games to get involved with. Will the Tide be motivated? Will they have a letdown? Will Miss State jam one into the end zone in the final minute to sneak in the back door? There’s better Games on the board this week from a betting standpoint. Good LUck if you play this one!