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Arizona State

vs.

UCLA

College

Football Pick

11/23/13

While the Pac-12 North is all but decided, the South still has some huge games to finish out the season, this being possibly the biggest of them all. Arizona State has the upper hand in the standings, but has to go on the road to UCLA to claim the title. UCLA hasn't gotten a ton of respect lately and come into this one as +2.5 point underdogs at home at betonline sportsbook.

A lot of people are hyped on the Sun Devils, but they are a few spots lower than the Bruins in the BCS Standings. ASU has gotten lucky multiple times this year in wins over Wisconsin and Utah, but are still viewed as favorites here.

UCLA's only slipups have been on the road against Stanford and Oregon. It seems like people are ignoring their road wins at Nebraska, Utah and Arizona. No matter, the Bruins have what it takes to win this game, unfortunately for them they have to go on the road to USC in their final game.

Scouts love UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley and it's easy to see why. He's fairly accurate with a career completion rate at 67 percent, while also being above average on the ground. His 20-8 TD-INT ratio is okay, but seven rushing touchdowns are big, as well. In the last three games, Hundley has nine total touchdowns and zero interceptions. With running back Jordon James hurt, Paul Perkins has been getting most of the carries, but it's been freshman linebacker Myles Jack who is taking the headlines. Jack has been a beast already with five touchdowns in 19 carries for 179 yards the last two games. He's the type of player to break games open, which is exactly what he's done the past two weeks.

Arizona State has a solid defense, but UCLA is going to be a harder task than anyone they've faced in the last couple months. The big reason people like Arizona State is because of its offense. They put up 62 points on USC earlier in the year and 53 on Washington in October. However, things haven't been the same the last two weeks scoring a total of 50 against Utah and Oregon State.

QB Taylor Kelly is in the same boat as Hundley, but a little less precise. He's taken a step back in two straight, tossing for just 327 yards, one TD and two INTs combined. Those kinds of numbers will not beat UCLA on the road. Kelly has the help of do-it-all Marion Grice in the backfield, who has 1,267 total yards and 20 total TDs to his name. Jaelen Strong is expected to have another 100-yard receiving game after putting up three straight duds before last weekend.

UCLA's defense has taken a step back in recent weeks, but that hasn't mattered as Hundley and company have been able to score enough. Containing Kelly and Grice is no easy task.
The last two games between these teams have been incredibly close with UCLA winning last year on the road 45-43 and then at home the previous season 29-28.

The Sun Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games and just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against UCLA. The Bruins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games and 4-1 ATS in their last five at home. UCLA has had the edge in this matchup, although Arizona State hasn't been this good in a while.

The betting trends at sportsbook.com show that the public is all over UCLA at home here as 95% of the action as of Tuesday afternoon has been on the Bruins. You can view the betting trends later in the week to see what the final tally is, simply by opening an account at sportsbook.com.

Last two games in this series have come down to the wire and we'd expect more of the same here. Our model runs using stats from the full season, the last 4 games and the last 7 games. Here are the score predictionsm in that order, 39-32, 41-28, 39-31 all with Arizona State on top.

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