Auburn
vs.
LSU
SEC College
Football Pick
9/21/13
Both of these teams look improved from a year ago and it shows in the standings with the two sitting at 3-0. Auburn finished with three total wins last season with no Conference wins. They already look primed to smash that total with Gus Malzahn as head coach. LSU was already good last year, but its offense led by Zach Mettenberger looks as if they’ve turned a corner.
LSU comes in as -17.5 point home favorites, up from an opener of -16 at 5 Dimes Sportsbook. LSU won that Game 12-10. Auburn could not do anything on the offensive end in that matchup, totaling 183 total yards. LSU moved the ball a little better, but it didn’t show on the scoreboard.
The betting trends at 5dimes.com aren’t as lopsided as you might think. Usually, the public doesn’t think twice about betting a big fav like LSU at home but here, 58% of the action is on LSU. Lower than we would think if we had to guess. You can view these betting trends for sides, totals and moneylines when you open an account at 5dimes.com.
Mettenberger could be a real problem for the Auburn defense in this one. After completing 59 percent of his passes for just 12 touchdowns a year ago, he is now completing 65 percent with already nine touchdowns. Granted, he hasn’t faced a SEC defense yet (although TCU is no slouch), but Mettenberger rarely put in Games like this last year never topping three passing TDs in a Game. He already has two such Games. Odell Beckham and Jarvis LAndry have been unstoppable for him, catching the majority of his passes as the two are combined for 576 yards and nine TDs. The running Game is also flowing through a three-back system. Alfred Blue, the expected starter at the beginning of the season, is third in rushing on the team.
Auburn will have its hands full after getting ran over by Dak Prescott last weekend. Of course, he’s a running quarterback so that’s a little different. Still, the Tigers’ defense played tough against three viable opponents already and that can’t be overlooked.
Auburn’s offense will be in for its toughest task yet going against the strength of LSU. Nick Marshall got the start at quarterback from the first Game and hasn’t looked back. He willed the team in their last win against Mississippi State after throwing for 339 yards and two touchdowns. That’s something we didn’t see out of Auburn at all last year. Their running Game has been impressive, as well. Much like LSU’s three-pronged attack, Auburn has three guys with at least 166 rushing yards and a touchdown. They didn’t run the ball well against the Bulldogs last weekend and it will be something they need to do against LSU because you don’t want that defense preying on Marshall.
In this meeting, the home team has covered Four straight Games to go along with the favorite covering Four of the last five. LSU has dominated their last two home Games in this series, outscoring Auburn 76-20. Auburn is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road Games, but LSU is only 1-5 ATS in its last six Games following an ATS loss.
No prediction on this one as we are using it as a Key Release.