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Auburn

vs.

Texas A&M

SEC Football

Pick - Analysis

10/19/13

Texas A&M host the Auburn Tigers on Saturday and is currently a -12.5 point favorite at 5 dimes sportsbook with a total of 72. After two straight non-covering road games, Texas A&M is back in College Station to begin a stretch of four straight home games. As for Auburn, this is test No. 2. They already lost to LSU on the road and now get another chance to upset a Top 10 team. The Tigers are back in the Top 25, the first time in a while, but will it be short-lived?

Auburn was destroyed in last year's game, 63-21. Johnny Manziel couldn't be stopped en route to a 42-7 halftime lead. Texas A&M's 352 rushing yards was more than what Auburn could do as a team. The Aggies were just -14 point favorites in that game on the road.

Of course, these teams are a bit different from a year ago. Auburn already has two more wins than they had all of last year and Texas A&M's defense has taken a turn for the worse.

The Tigers have improved on defense, but stopping Manziel is another story. Manziel surprisingly threw for no touchdowns last week, but still rushed for 124 yards and two TDs. Although it's not like he struggled through the air, completing 31-of-39 passes for 346 yards. No one has been able to stop Manziel yet, including Alabama. WR Mike Evans was held in check by Ole Miss, but that could easily mean he's due for a bounce back effort against Auburn. The run game is led by Manziel, but Ben Malena is still in the mix with 364 yards and eight TDs.

Since Auburn's defense has been a problem, it's going to fall on the offense to score points. They've been solid so far, putting 30 points on Ole Miss and 31 on Washington State. Starting quarterback Nick Marshall didn't play last week in the free win against Western Carolina, but he returned to practice and should be good to go. In his first season as the starter, it hasn't gone all that well with four TDs and four INTs, but it could be worse. Accuracy is a problem at times and he'll need to be on his game here. WRs Sammie Coates and Quan Bray will both need to show up. The Tigers love to run the ball and will do it as much as possible early in the game to keep Manziel off the field. Tre Mason leads the way with 515 yards and seven touchdowns, but if they get down by a couple TDs, it's going to be on Marshall to move the chains.

The Tigers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win and are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games. The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven conference games. Those two non-covers have come in the last two weeks.

Surprisingly, Auburn is drawing the bulk of the betting action here. The betting trends at sportsbook.com show 64% of the action has been on the visiting Tigers.

 

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