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Baylor

vs.

Oklahoma State

Big 12

College Football

Pick

Betting Trends

11/23/13

This is what it comes down to for the Big 12 title, Baylor at Oklahoma State. Even with more games remaining, it's hard to see Baylor losing to anyone else in the conference. The Cowboys are coming off a big win at Texas and make this a Top 10 BCS matchup. The Bears are still sizable -9.5 point favorites on the at 5 dimes sportsbook and as high as 10 at other shops such as sportsbook.com

The Bears still have only played two true road games this year and one of them was against lowly Kansas. Their game at Kansas State was their closest win all year at 35-25, and they needed a fourth-quarter comeback. They haven't really had a matchup like OK State all season, so it'll be interesting to see how Baylor does.

The Cowboys have now won six straight games since losing improbably at West Virginia. Their last three wins have been their best wins of the year with two coming on the road at Texas Tech and Texas. To dismantle the ranked Longhorns by 25 points on offense and defense showed a lot about this team. This will be no easy task for Baylor.

Quarterback Clint Chelf led the charge for OK State against Texas and came up with possibly his best game of the year. Chelf, often an erratic passer, completed 16-of-22 passes for a couple touchdowns while also rushing for 95 yards and two scores. Chelf will need to have a repeat performance to keep up with Baylor. With leading WR Josh Stewart out for the season, senior wide out Charlie Moore had one of the best games of his career (numbers wise) grabbing six balls for 83 yards and a TD. Someone will have to step up again in this matchup. The Cowboys still lack in the running game with Desmond Roland being the main point of attack and he's only surpassed 100 yards once this season.

Baylor's defense isn't a top unit, but can slow down opponents for the most part as they slowly turn into pass-heavy offenses. Even after Texas Tech got an early lead on them last weekend, the Baylor defense stepped up and only allowed seven points in the second half.

On the other end, the Bears score the most points per game in the country, hitting the 59-point mark a ridiculous seven times in nine games.

Even with wide receiver Tevin Reese not healthy, other players have been huge, most notably Levi Norwood, who racked up 156 receiving yards and two TDs against the Red Raiders. QB Bryce Petty now has 34 total touchdowns and just one interception for the year, making him a legitimate Heisman candidate. His completion percentage has been down in the last couple games, yet he still found a way to put points on the board, getting 10 TDs in those two games. A lot of that is because Baylor can run on just about anyone they want. Leading RB Lache Seastrunk is dealing with a groin injury, but so far, it hasn't mattered who's getting the carries. Shock Linwood has 812 yards and eight TDs to his name, and Devin Chafin stepped in last game for 100 yards and two touchdowns for himself.

This will obviously be Oklahoma State's biggest test so far on the defensive end. They've been an inconsistent bunch, so it's hard to gauge where they are at. But looking at last weekend's win at Texas, it's a good sign that the Cowboys may be able to stop Baylor for less than 50 points, at the least.

Baylor came away with a home 41-34 win last year, mainly due to its power rushing attack. Prior to that win, Oklahoma State won the six previous matchups.

The Bears are a crazy 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games, but only 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. The Cowboys are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. In this meeting, the Cowboys have covered in six of the last seven games.

The betting trends at sportsbook.com favor Baylor, but not by as high of a margin as we would have thought. 58% of the action as of Tuesday afternoon is on the Bears.

We normally don't offer our Key Releases on a weekly basis. However, this week since we are playing 7 games, possibly 8, you can pick them all up for $20. This game is could be one of the Key Releases. If we don't go at least 4-3 this week, you'll also receive next weeks plays. Click Here to Purchase

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