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Bowling Green

vs.

Northern Illinois

MAC Championship

Football Pick

12/7/13

This is the game everyone has been waiting for, the MAC Championship Game. Maybe not, but it does feature a possible Heisman candidate in Jordan Lynch. His Northern Illinois team is primed for another MAC title and another BCS bowl if they win here. Bowling Green won the East division last week, defeating Buffalo on the road and now have the toughest task of their season. The Huskies are -3 point favorites for the game being played at Ford Field, at betonline sportsbook.

Once again, many are going to question whether Northern Illinois should be in a BCS bowl or not. They got a chance last year and were handled by Florida State. They haven't exactly been amazing this year either, beating lowly Idaho by just 10 points and Akron by seven. With a win here, a lot are projecting a Fiesta Bowl bid against Oklahoma State.

Quarterback Jordan Lynch has been doing his usual thing this year, leading a Top 10 scoring offense in the nation to 43 points per game. He could easily be a Heisman candidate if he puts in another stat-heavy game against the Falcons. Lynch has a rare stat line of 22 passing touchdowns and 20 rushing touchdowns this season. Not many can say that in the history of college football. He has 1,755 yards on the ground averaging 7.1 yards per carry which is astounding. In comparison, he's only averaging 7.47 yards per pass attempt. Running back Cameron Stingily has a quiet 1,007 yards and nine TDs in the ground game. Leading receiver Tommylee Lewis has missed two straight games with a toe injury, so his status will be important for this one.

Bowling Green only allowed 13.8 points per game as a defense, but know this won't be a walk in the park. Their worst game defensively came at Indiana earlier in the year, allowing 42 points. This defense looks good on the outside, but they are more of a product of a creampuff MAC schedule. Keep in mind they lost at home to Toledo, 28-25.

The Falcons obviously have a lesser offense and haven't really succeeded against better teams. Most of their scoring has come against teams with losing records in the MAC. Matt Johnson has been solid at QB in his first season as starter, but in BG's three losses, he has zero touchdowns. That's not going to win many close games. The best part of this Falcons offense is the run game led by Travis Greene. He has 1,422 yards and 10 TDs on the year, reaching at least 96 yards in 10 of 12 games.

Northern Illinois doesn't have a great defense and it shows in the numbers as it hasn't allowed less than 14 points all year. On the other end, Bowling Green allowed single-digit points in seven games.

The Falcons will be able to score, but can they keep up with Lynch? It's going to be a real test considering BG's only win against a team with a winning record came last week against Buffalo.

Still, the Falcons are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and have covered in four straight. The Huskies are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games, but 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 conference games. The last time these teams played was back in 2011 with much different teams.

A whopping 94% of the wagers taken at sportsbook.com as of Tuesday morning have come in on Northern Illinois. You can view these betting trends for all sports every day by opening an account at sportsbook.com.

We're using this game as a Key Release. Watch for details on our homepage on how you can join us for our Bowl game Key Releases this year. You don't want to miss these plays!

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