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Broncos

vs.

Cowboys

NFL Pick

Betting Trends

10/6/13

We mentioned that perhaps the Seattle/Indy game would be the marquee NFL game of the week. But this matchup between Denver and Dallas may actually edge that game out. Tony Romo went ahead and added a little spice of his own to this game with some comments earlier in the week about the Denver secondary.

"They grab, they hold, they've almost put a lot of pressure on the refs – whether or not they're going to call the game close or not," Romo said on a conference call with reporters in Denver. "If they get called once or twice, that's a good thing. But they're all over guys as far as using the little tricks, I guess you could say, that good linebackers and good secondary's use when they're playing man coverage."

Currently the Broncos are -7.5 point road favorites at 5 dimes sportsbook with a total of 56.5 and why not, they have walked all over everyone they have played thus far. Of course, we have to be mindful of the fact that among their 4 wins they count the Giants, Raiders and Eagles as victims. Not exactly a group of defensive juggernauts. They should be tested a bit more this week.

Hopes were high in Dallas after an opening week win over the Giants. Little did we know the Giants would be among the leagues worst after 4 weeks of play. The Cowboys went on to lose to the Chiefs and Chargers with their other win coming over the Rams. Perhaps the Cowboys will once again be a mediocre .500 football team?

Dallas and Denver come in with similar yards per point numbers. The Broncos have a sizzling offensive ypp number of 10.7 but the Cowboys aren't far behind with a 13, which is very good. Defensively, the Cowboys rate the edge with a 17.9 to Denver's 17.1, but remember, the Broncos are giving up some garbage yards in games because teams have been so far behind. Their defense may be better than the numbers show. Even though the numbers still aren't bad.

Guess who the betting public likes? Surprise! 77% of the action  at sportsbook.com has come in on the Broncos.

Our model has the Broncos covering this number and winning by 12. However, we're going to go against our model here and take the touchdown and the hook with the home team Cowboys. We expect a huge effort here from Dallas and think the Broncos will finally find themselves in a game. Cowboys +7.5

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