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Week 15

NFL Pick



The Chiefs hit the road to play the Raiders this week in a game between one team contending for the Super Bowl and another team just playing out the season. The Super Bowl contender, the Chiefs, are currently -4.5 point favorites at with a total of 41.5. The betting trends show 83% of the wagers taken on this game have come in on the Chiefs and 99% of the total wagers have come in on the over.

This game is very similar to the Panthers/Jets game this week. A very good football taking on a pretty bad one. The only difference being the good team in this one, the Chiefs, are on the road. We used the Chiefs as a rare NFL Key Release last week and nailed the game with flying colors. Are thinking going in was, anything can happen in an NFL game, but the numbers we like to use suggested a total mismatch and that's the way it played out.

This weeks game has many of those same qualities as last weeks Chiefs game. Often times a teams numbers change when you look separate stats by home and away results. Usually, teams perform much better at home and there's often a significant drop off on the road. Not the case with the Chiefs though. Their road numbers are just as good as their home numbers and they have a 5-1 record to back it up, all while outscoring opponents 28-14 on average.

While many teams numbers get a boost at home, that boost doesn't do much for Oakland. They're 3-3 at home and getting outscored on average 20-23. All of the Raiders losses have been by 4+ points while all of the Chiefs wins but two have come by a TD or more.

There's no rocket science involved here. We're simply taking the better team, a playoff team and Super Bowl contender, to win an important road game that will lock them into the playoffs, against a team that is among the very worst that the NFL has to offer. We're not necessarily expecting a repeat performance from last week on the scoreboard, but the Chefs should dominate this game. Chiefs -4.5

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