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Clemson

vs.

Maryland

ACC

College Football

Pick

10/26/13

How is Clemson going to comeback from the embarrassment it received from Florida State last weekend? The matchup is there for the Tigers to run loose even though Maryland has a 5-2 record. The Terrapins are coming off a pretty embarrassing 24-point loss to Wake Forest, as well. Clemson is currently a hefty -14 point road favorite at 5 dimes sportsbook with a total of 60.

When the Seminoles beat Clemson last season, the Tigers followed up with a 45-31 win over Boston College. Maryland has played much better at home this year than away, so this game isn't a freebie by any means.

Clemson dominated this matchup last season in a 45-10 home win. Tajh Boyd finished with three TDs and was rested in the fourth quarter so it could have been worse. The difference this year is that the Terps have a real quarterback instead of a fifth-stringer, so it's not ideal to compare the two games.

If anyone needs to bounce back from last week's game, it's Boyd. He had one of the worst games of his college career against the Seminoles, going 17-for-37 for only 156 yards, one TD and two interceptions. It's the second straight week that the Tigers have struggled on offense as the week prior, they only put up 24 points at home against Boston College. Boyd will likely come out gunning in this one against a defense that's struggled at times. In line with that, WR Sammy Watkins (650 yards, five TDs) should be in for a big day, as well. Clemson doesn't run a great deal, but it may be better in the long run if they can get something going with Roderick McDowell.

Maryland's defense hasn't been great the past few games, allowing offenses to do whatever they want. Even in the 27-26 win against Virginia, the Cavaliers still went for 500 total yards.

The Terps got starting QB C.J. Brown back from a concussion last week, although it didn't really do much. Brown had his worst game of the year throwing for 137 yards and two interceptions. Maybe there were some aftereffects from the concussion, or maybe Wake Forest had a good game plan. Something that doesn't help Maryland is that their top two wide receivers on the year (by far) broke their legs and are out for the rest of the year. Brown's top receiver is now Levern Jacobs, who has yet to have more than three catches in a game this year. Maryland will likely lean on the ground game as much as possible with Brandon Ross (458 yards, four TDs).

Clemson's defense was having a great year until facing Jameis Winston. Going against a depleted passing attack of Maryland should be much easier. If Boyd can get back on track, the Tigers will be in a good spot for this game, but it's not a given even with how good Boyd can be.

The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games, but only 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. The Terrapins are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games, yet only 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. The under has hit in six of the last seven meetings between these teams.

Clemson really hadn't played all that difficult of a schedule heading into the FSU game. Their biggest test was a 38-35 win over Georgia to start the year. But the Maryland schedule was even weaker. According to our numbers, the Clemson schedule has been a couple of touchdowns more difficult, which is significant here.

Our numbers have this right around the posted line. However, when breaking it down with data from only the last 4 games, we come up with a Clemson blowout and remember, that includes using data from the Clemson-FSU game.

So, our numbers say Clemson, or pass. However, our gut says, Maryland finds a way to make a game of this. The public loves Clemson here with 82% of the action coming in is on the Tigers and they also love the over as 100% of the wagers on the total have come on on the over. Courtesy of the sportsbook.com betting trends.

We'll buck the public here and take a stab at Maryland +14.5 and we'll also go under the total of 60.5, just for the sake of going against the obvious. Obviously, this is just a small opinion and nothing strong.

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