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Count us among the Colts doubters this season. We mentioned it last week and will once again bring it front and center. They had the weakest schedule in the NFL last year and were also helped by the shear emotion involved with their head coach and his illness. Not to take anything away from Andrew Luck, we love the guy, but they may find things a tad more difficult this year. The Dolphins figure to be competitive every time they take the field this year.
Not surprisingly, the betting trends at sportsbook.com favor the Colts as 72% of the action thus far is on the Colts minus the spot. Not as much of a landslide as last week and we certainly don't think the Colts will be the top choice in knockout pools, as they were last week, but the numbers still show that the public is still on their bandwagon.
This was a 3 point game last year. Our numbers, using last year's stats suggest a 1 point game. Really no reason to expect anything less. Really not a game we're interested in, in the real world, and Andrew Luck could always prove to be the difference, at home, but we're going to back the Dolphins here in a slight upset call. Miami +3 -120
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Miami's last 13 games
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
Indianapolis is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing Miami
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Indianapolis is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Miami
Indianapolis is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Miami
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