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Florida

vs.

South Carolina

SEC

Football Pick

11/16/13

This wasn't the type of season either of these teams hoped for going in. It's been a disaster for Florida, losing four straight and now a road game at South Carolina, followed by Florida State remaining on the schedule. The Gamecocks aren't in a great position either, basically hoping Missouri loses in one of their final two games. The Gamecocks are -13 point favorites at home, at betonline sportsbook.

It wouldn't be surprising if the Gators missed out on a bowl game this year, which doesn't sound believable with how good they've been in recent years. Florida dominated this matchup last year 44-11 and that was only a year ago. We're in store for a much different result this time around.

If South Carolina didn't let a win slip from its hands at Tennessee a few weeks ago, it would be a different situation as the Gamecocks would be tied for first in the SEC East. Now, they'll need Missouri to lose to have a chance at the SEC title game. With Connor Shaw back and almost completely healthy, it's possible.

What gets interesting for Florida is that quarterback Tyler Murphy is a game-time decision with a sprained shoulder. Redshirt freshman Skyler Mornhinweg could be in line to get the first start of his young career. No matter what happens, the QB play for the Gators has been less than desirable. Not to mention their run game hasn't done much with Mack Brown and Kelvin Taylor. The team is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry.

South Carolina has not been great defensively this year, but this could be a nice chance for Jadeveon Clowney to wreak havoc.

What's disappointing is that Florida's defense hasn't been great either. Allowing 34 points at home to Vanderbilt last weekend is a good example of that.

Connor Shaw has been beat up for most of the year, but still has an impressive 18 touchdowns and only one interception. Receivers Damiere Byrd and Bruce Ellington don't have huge numbers, but they are getting the job done with a combined nine TDs. Shaw can also move on the ground with 375 yards, but it's been Mike Davis, who makes this offense roll. Davis has 1,058 rushing yards and 10 TDs to go with 326 receiving yards.

The Gators face an uphill battle in this once and that shows in the large spread for this game. Since their QB situation doesn't look great, it will be on the defense to keep this game close and from what we've seen of them lately, that doesn't look likely.

The Gators are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss, but are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week. The Gamecocks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win, but 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games. The home team has covered in four of the past five meetings between these teams.

The betting trends at sportsbook.com show that 80% of the wagers taken on ths game have come in on South Carolina. You can view the betting trends for all sports, and we suggest you do, but opening an account at sportsbook.com. It's an invaluable betting tool that keeps you in the loop with what's going on with these games on a daily basis.

If we handicap this game using seaosn to date stats, Florida comes up as the play. If we use only the past month or so, it shows two teams headed in opposite directions.

The feelinh here is that the 3 game stretch of LSU, Missouri and Georgia took it's toll on the Gators and would explain their home loss to Vandy. Not taking anything away from Vandy, but had the met at a different time, the result might have been different. We think Florida makes a game with this and comes within the number here. An upset? It's possible. Florida +13

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