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Georgia Tech

vs.

Miami College

Football Pick

10/5/13

Miami Florida hosts Georgia Tech Saturday and the Hurricanes are currently -5.5 point favorites at betonline, up from an opener of -4 with a total of 55. Miami's quarterback Stephen Morris left last game with an ankle injury, but he's probable to play and doesn't look like a worry to miss even though he's had constant leg problems this year.

The betting trends at sportsbook.com show us that an overwhelming amount have action has come in on the Hurricanes this week as 98% of the action is on Miami.

Georgia Tech is coming off a rather disappointing 17-10 home loss to Virginia Tech, which is one reason people are on the Hurricanes. In last year's game, Miami won on the road by outgaining the Yellow Jackets by 190 total yards in a 42-36 win. GT has a better defense this year, but Miami is improved on all fronts.

The Hurricanes are playing well as seen in their 21-16 win over Florida almost a month ago. At No. 14 in the country, they have a stout defense and a viable offense led by Morris. While Morris has missed time, his backup Ryan Williams has been solid when needed. It looks like Allen Hurns is finally breaking through as the top receiver in his senior season, leading the team in receptions (16) and yards (275). Duke Johnson controls the running game with 388 yards and four TDs on the year. So far he has carved through the easy teams, but only went for 21 carries and 59 yards against the Gators. Morris threw for 436 yards in last year's matchup, but it was running back Mike James, who scored the last three touchdowns of the game.

Georgia Tech has looked like a new team on defense, keeping everyone under 20 points. Their best outing was against North Carolina, shutting out the Tar Heels in the second half. Now they get to face a ranked team on the road so the real challenge begins.

Tech's offense was looking better than in year's past until last week's 10-point outing against the Hokies. Vad Lee was passing well until going 7-for-24 for zero TDs and two interceptions in that game. The Hokies stopped the Yellow Jackets to just 3.1 yards per carry on the ground, which is the only way to stop this offense. Lee (215 rushing yards) is joined by David Sims (248 yards) and Zach Laskey (136 yards) in the backfield.

In last year's game, Georgia Tech attempted eight passes, while rushing it 58 times for 287 yards. It wouldn't be surprising if they took the same approach, especially after last weekend's game. It's going to fall on the Hurricanes defense to stop this rushing attack and win this game.

The Yellow Jackets are a solid 7-1 ATS in their last eight conference games and have covered four straight games following a straight up loss. The Hurricanes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games and have covered in seven straight following an ATS win. In this series, the Hurricanes have covered in four straight and the under has hit in the last four meetings in Miami.

Both teams come in with solid yards per point numbers, though Miami's are much better defensively. However, our score prediction model has Georgia Tech coming out on top in this one straight up in a game that also goes under the posted total.  So, Georgia Tech +6 and Under 55.5

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