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Georgia Tech

vs.

Virginia

ACC

College Football

Pick

Betting Trends

10/26/13

Virginia hosts Georgia Tech in ACC football action this Saturday in a game that kicks off at 12:30 pm est. The Cavs come in at 2-5 and un all likelihood will not be going bowling this year (it would take a miracle). Georgia Tech on the other hand, sits at 4-3 and while likely out of the ACC Coastal race, having lost to the two teams ahead of them in the standings, Va Tech and Miami, the Yellow Jackets are just about a lock to win at least 6 games and end up in a bowl game this year.

That being said, this is the time of year where teams start looking at winnable games and perhaps giving those games some extra emphasis. The more wins a team has, the better the bowl game they can go to. Tech still has Clemson and Georgia on their dance card. Now, those are technically "winnable" games for the Yellow Jackets, but they also have Virginia, Alabama A&M and Pittsburgh. Surely they'd like to take care of business against the last 3 mentioned, as opposed to having to beat Clemson or Georgia.

Georgia Tech is currently a -10 point road favorite at 5 dimes sportsbook, up from an opener of -9. Now, that's a hefty number to cover on the road for sure, but not necessarily out of reach here for Georgia Tech. Virginia has had trouble this year where they always seem to have trouble and that's putting points on the board. They rank 100 out of roughly 120 teams in points scored. Their offensive yards per point number is close to 17, which is poor and their defensive numbers are equally as bad at 13.3 with a ranking of 75th in points allowed. They have lost their last 4 games, to Pitt, Ball State, Maryland and Duke and 3 out of those 4 games were lost by 11 points or more.

Georgia Tech won their 1st 3 out of the gate before dropping 3 in a row. On the bright side of that 3 game losing streak is that those games were all against good teams, Va Tech, Miami and BYU. They then snapped that losing streak by dismantling Syracuse last week, 56-0.

Tech beat the Cavs 56-20 a year ago, so the Cavs have the revenge angle working for them, but it's always important to note that a team seeking revenge needs to be capable of attaining it in the first place, and we're not so sure the Cavs are capable. Tech is clearly the better team across the board here.

One major red flag here is that the betting public is ALL OVER Georgia Tech. The betting trends at sportsbook.com show 95% of the action on this game has come in on the Yellow Jackets. That's a tad too lopsided for us and enough to make us take a step back and take another look. Nothing is ever THAT easy.

Our model would like to join the Georgia Tech party as well. It has Tech covering the number easily with a 20 point win, 37-17. So we'll cautiously put this game out as an opinion only and we'll take Georgia Tech -10 or better but it's an opinion only. Be careful here!

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