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Giants

vs.

Chiefs

NFL Pick

Betting Trends

9/29/13

The Chiefs host the Giants on Sunday and are currently -4 point favorites at 5 Dimes sportsbook with a total of 44. If you looked at this game prior to the season starting, you likely penciled in a "W" for the Giants over the hapless Chiefs. Instead what we appear to have here, is the hapless 0-3 Giants looking for their first win over the 3-0 Chiefs!

Yes it's early, but guess who sits at #1 in the NFL in defensive yards per point? Yep, the Chiefs. Guess who sits at #31 in the NFL in defensive yards per points? Yep, the Giants. The Chiefs are also top 10 offensively while the Giants are near the bottom.

Take a glance at turnover margin stats for the NFL or college football and you'll notice a correlation between wins and losses, both straight up and against the spread, and turnover margin. Good teams don't turn the ball over and they create turnovers defensively. Bad teams do the opposite. The Chiefs are #1 in the NFL in turnover margin at +9. The Giants are #31 at -9, tied for last in the NFL with the Steelers. If you're keeping track at home, that's a difference of 18 between the two.

Now, we have to consider who each team has played and remind everyone that we are only 3 games in. The Chiefs beat Dallas, which is a good thing. But their other two wins came against the Eagles and Jags. The Giants on the other hand, have lost to the smokin hot Broncos, the Cowboys and the Panthers. The Panthers by the way, look to have a pretty good team this year. So, 3 games of stats could be skewed a bit here based on who these teams have played. Remember last year, the Cardinals started out 4-0 and look what happened to them.

Everything points to the Chiefs here and the public agrees, backing the Chiefs to the tune of 67% at sportsbook.com. But there's a reason we don't bet early season NFL and it's the reason mentioned above. As the season rolls on, the stats become more meaningful because they average out. In other words, 8 games into a season, all teams have played a schedule that is pretty much even in strength. However, 3 games in, there are lots of lopsided schedule strength games, and this is one of them.

We'd expect the Giants to bounce back after Tom Coughlin's worst lost ever in New York. But then, we also expect them to bounce back after their first two losses. Maybe they really are that bad? We won't play this game in the real world, so this is just an opinion. But the stats point towards an easy Chiefs win. Chiefs -4

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