LSU
vs.
Georgia
College Football
Pick
9/28/13
There’s no question this is the biggest Game of the weekend. You can’t get much better than a SEC battle between two Top 10 teams. They didn’t play each other last year, but a 42-10 loss from back in 2011 still lingers with some of the Georgia players, especially quarterback Aaron Murray. Even though the Bulldogs outgained LSU by 60 total yards in that Game, they lost by 32 points at home.
Georgia is currently favored by -3 at 5 Dimes Sportsbook. They already have a big SEC win under their belt from beating South Carolina a couple weeks ago. Last weekend, the Bulldogs were likely looking ahead when they found themselves tied 21-21 with North Texas in the second half. Now, with already their third Game against a Top 10 opponent, Georgia has big plans of an undefeated SEC season.
However, it’s not going to be easy by any means. LSU is already 4-0 and led by a vastly improved offense from a season ago. This will be the Tigers’ first true road Game of the season, so it’ll be interesting if quarterback Zach Mettenberger can be as effective at Sanford Stadium.
Mettenberger is the main reason for an improved Tigers offense, currently scoring more than 43 points per Game. He’s completing passes at a better rate than last season and already has 10 passing TDs compared to the 12 he had all of last season. To beat Georgia, Mettenberger will have to continue his success. He’s helped out by receivers Odell Beckham and Jarvis LAndry, who are doing everything in the passing Game. The two have combined for 44 receptions, 753 yards and all of Mettenberger’s 10 TDs. The running Game led by Jeremy Hill (350 yards, six TDs) has had no problems thus far.
In Georgia’s home win over South Carolina, they were gashed on the ground, but ended up only allowing seven points in the second half. The same thing happened against Clemson, but Tajh Boyd was the main difference and led his team to victory. While the room will be there for LSU to run, the final result will end up on Mettenberger’s shoulders.
Of course, that may not matter if the Tigers can’t stop the Aaron Murray-led offense. Murray has tossed for at least 300 yards in every Game so far, including a nearly perfect 17-for-23 night with Four TDs against the Gamecocks. He’s joined by one of the best RBs in the nation in Todd Gurley, who already has 377 yards and Four touchdowns. It’s doubtful anyone will be able to stop Gurley this season.
The Tigers surprisingly haven’t been as solid on the defensive end this year, already giving up 27 points to TCU in their first Game. They’ll need to keep Georgia under 30 points if they want to win this Game.
It’s a BCS bowl or bust for both of these teams so expect a great back-and-forth Game with a winner not being decided until the Fourth quarter.
Georgia has covered in five straight Conference Games and is 4-1 ATS in its last five home Games. LSU is only 2-5 ATS in its last seven Games overall, and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 Conference Games. Combined, the over has hit in nine straight Games for these teams. There will be points and it will be a fun battle to watch between these two senior SEC quarterbacks.
Our model has this Game 37-37. This is supported by other numbers we like to use, so, we’ll back LSU here and take any points available, which right now would be 3. LSU +3