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LSU

vs.

Ole Miss

SEC

College Football

Pick - Trends

10/19/13

Everything was going as planned for the Rebels after they got off to a 3-0 start with road wins over Vanderbilt and Texas. However, Ole Miss has now lost three straight games and the respect is out the window. With their third game against a Top 10 team in the last month, this is another chance to prove doubters wrong. LSU lost to Georgia a couple weeks ago, but are no means out of the SEC picture, especially with Alabama remaining on the schedule. The Tigers are -10 point road favorites at 5 dimes with a total of 60.

It's hard not to like LSU in this one, even on the road. They have a better overall team and will cause problems for Ole Miss on both sides of the ball. The Rebels put 38 points on the Aggies last weekend and that definitely will not happen again. They were shut out against the Crimson Tide earlier this year and LSU boasts a similar defense.

Quarterback Bo Wallace is having another decent season for the Rebels, but decent isn't good enough in the SEC. Wallace is often erratic and it shows in his sub-60% completion percentage. Once in a while he'll take a shot to Donte Moncrief down field, but Wallace is only averaging 7.2 yards per attempt. And while he can run, there has been no room against better defenses. Jeff Scott, their leading running back, has disappeared in recent weeks with only 10 carries the past two games. I'Tavius Mathers and Jaylen Walton are splitting touches with Scott, but no one is doing much. Wallace will be asked to do a lot in this game, but usually when that happens the result isn't good.

The Rebels don't have a bad defense, but LSU is firing on all cylinders at the moment and will be a problem. Zach Mettenberger is one of the most improved quarterbacks in the country, already with 1,890 yards, 15 TDs and only two INTs. Strangely, he was a hindrance to this team a year ago. A couple of his best games have come on the road (Georgia, Miss. State) so it's unlikely the environment will affect him too much. The two-man receiving crew of Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry has helped as they've combined for 83 receptions, 1,407 yards and 13 touchdowns. No other receiver on the team has more than four receptions. Jeremy Hill has been a stud between the tackles, already with 715 yards and nine TDs. Most notably, he had 121 yards against Florida last weekend.

Ole Miss stuck around last year on the road in a 41-35 loss and they'll need a similar effort from Bo Wallace to have a chance in this game. Last year, Wallace tossed for 310 yards on a few deep routes to Moncrief, but in the end his 43 completion percentage and three interceptions lost the game.

The Tigers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 road games, but 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Rebels are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games, but 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The road team is an astounding 14-2 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these two teams.

The public has shown it has no faith in Ole Miss as 90% of the wagers taken at sportsbook.com have come in on LSU.

While we won't be using this as a key release, we'll take a shot with Ole Miss here. 3 of the last 4 in this series, including last year, were close games. In fact, several over the last decade in this series have been close and it's safe to say this is one of the better teams Ole Miss has put on the field. They seem to rise to the occasssion when playing LSU.

They come in with a yards per point number on defense only a couple of points worse than LSU's which is significant because Ole Miss has played a more difficult schedule, including their battle with Texas A&M last week.

Our model has LSU on top by 12 here, but we're going to go against the model. We'll go with Ole Miss in a series that hostorically, has seen some good close games. We also get to go against the public, which is always nice. Ole Miss +10

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