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Miami

vs.

Duke

ACC Football

Pick

Betting Trends

11/16/13

Miami (FL) got as high as No. 7 in the rankings before their schedule started to pick up. Now, the Hurricanes go on the road to face a surprising Duke team that has the same record. The Blue Devils have five straight wins, including a big road win at Virginia Tech. The Hurricanes are still -3 point favorites going into this one, at betonline sportsbook.

Duke hasn't had a respectable football team in a while and that's why the public will be on Miami for this game. In this matchup, the Hurricanes have won eight straight games. Last year was a shootout, with the 'Canes winning 52-45 on the road. Both teams did whatever they wanted on the offensive end, combining for 1,229 total yards.

The Blue Devils don't have quite the same kind of offense as seen a year ago, but they have had some big games, most notably a 58-55 loss to Pittsburgh. They've also had a problem at quarterback throughout the year. Opening game starter Anthony Boone has tossed seven interceptions in the last two games, yet they somehow won both of those games. Brandon Connette has been better, but hasn't started since September. Connette has 12 TDs and six INTs on the year and it wouldn't be surprising if he got the start in this one. WR Jamison Crowder destroyed the 'Canes last year for 200 yards and two TDs and will be a big part in this game as Duke doesn't have a great rushing game.

Miami's defense has suddenly disappeared in recent weeks, letting Logan Thomas do whatever he wanted to last week. Duke doesn't have a great offense, but if they get the opportunity, they can score.

The Hurricanes are once again led by Stephen Morris at quarterback. His numbers have fallen off a bit this year (14 TDs, 10 INTs) as accuracy continues to be a problem. He has the receivers to make plays in Allen Hurns and Stacy Coley, which is what needs to happen in this game. Their running game took a hit when Duke Johnson went down and will use a combo of Dallas Crawford and Gus Edwards.

Outside of allowing 58 points to Pitt, the Blue Devils haven't been all that bad on the defensive end, granted they haven't played anyone with a good offense. Morris will be the difference in this game if he can get it going.

After getting overrated a bit early in the season, the Hurricanes have failed to cover four straight. It's the opposite for the Blue Devils, who have surprised many and have covered in four straight.

The Hurricanes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games and are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss. The Blue Devils are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games, but 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.

The betting trends at sportsbook.com show 63% of the action here is on the Hurricanes and 66% on the Under.

 

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