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Miami

vs.

North Carolina

Thursday Night

College Football

Pick - Analysis

10/17/13

North Carolina hosts Miami tonight in ACC College football action. Miami comes in undefeated at 5-0 while the Tarheels are off to a 1-4 start. Currently Miami is a -9 point favorite at 5 dimes sportsbook with a total of 63.5.

We aren't in the habit of laying more than a touchdown on the road which is really what keeps this game from being a key release. There's not much to like about the Tarheels here while just the opposite can be said about the Hurricanes. Miami is ranked 9th in points scored, NC is 93rd. Miami is 9th in points allowed, NC is 95th. Miami has the #28 ranked rushing attack, NC is 115. While both teams can move the ball through the air, Miami owns the #1 ranked pass defense in the nation. NC is 73rd.

The Hurricanes come in with an offensive yards per point number of 10.8 while NC's number on offense is a way below average 16.6. Defensively, Miami shines as well with a 19.2 while NC has a very poor 13.9. Miami is +6 in turnover margin and as you might expect from a losing team, NC is -2. If the stats favoring Miami aren't enough, the revenge angle might help put them over the top. North Carolina beat Miami, in Miami, last year, 18-14. Payback time for the Hurricanes.

If you're looking to make a case for the Tarheels, it would have to be with the fact that they have played the more difficult schedule of the two. Miami has really only played two good teams, Florida and Georgia Tech and some may question Georgia Tech being a "good" team. Miami's other 3 opponents were Florida International, Savannah St and South Florida.

Our score prediction model does a nice job of taking schedule strength into account when coming up with a final score. In this spot, despite the weaker schedule, our model likes Miami by a score of 38-20. So, everything seems to line up for a play on Miami here. The better team with the much better numbers, seeking revenge for a home loss from a year ago and backed by our model as well. Miami -9

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