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Mississippi State

vs.

Texas A&M

College Football

Pick

11/9/13

It's the calm before the storm for Texas A&M. After this weekend's game against Mississippi State, the Aggies get back-to-back road games against LSU and Missouri. That begs to ask, will Texas A&M have 100 percent focus in this game? The Bulldogs are 4-4, yet have stayed relatively tight in most of their games this year. The Aggies are -19.5 point favorites at 5 dimes sportsbook with a total of 66.

One thing you can almost guarantee with the Aggies, is that they'll score a lot of points no matter who they are playing. If you haven't noticed, Johnny Manziel can score on anyone, including the 42 points he put on Alabama. The problem is their defense that is allowing close to 30 points per game. The only reason the Aggies have two losses is because of poor defense.

Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, their offense is one of the weakest in the SEC. The most points they've scored in a conference game this year was 28 against Kentucky. And while they've had some solid games defensively, they still gave up 59 points at home to LSU.

Quarterback Dak Prescott is the main reason the Bulldogs struggle on offense. He's not terrible, but he doesn't provide much in a year when most teams they are playing against score 30-plus points per game. Prescott is averaging 7.2 yards per attempt, which is pretty low. That shows in his five touchdowns and six interceptions. Most of his game comes from the ground where he has 568 yards and 10 touchdowns. Even then, those numbers are right in line with Manziel, but Manziel is a much better passer. It's going to be on Prescott to get the passing game going in this one. WR Jameon Lewis has four touchdowns and 491 yards and they'll need a big game out of him.

The Aggies have been better on defense lately so that could be something to watch here. They stopped Vandy to 24 points a couple weeks ago, but that was against a first-time starter at quarterback. There will be opportunities for Prescott to keep this game close.

Everyone is familiar with what Manziel can do for the Aggies. He's completing 72.5 percent of his passes and has one of the best passer ratings in the country. He also leads the team in rushing and has 34 total touchdowns. It would be nice to have a consistent RB outside of Manziel, but that hasn't mattered much as they've been using a trio of guys just fine. Wide receiver Mike Evans (1,147 yards and 12 TDs) is coming off one of his worst games of the year and will try to bounce back in this one.

Mississippi State hasn't faced an offense like this yet and it's going to be a problem for them, especially on the road. Texas A&M put 693 yards on them last year, but only 38 points. Expect that point total to be up this year.

The Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS in their last seven road games and haven't covered in four straight. The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games, but are 1-3 ATS in their last four conference games.

A whopping 94% of the wagers taken on this game at sportsbook.com have come in on Texas A&M.

The prices continue to get jacked up on A&M games but in this spot, that may be appropriate. Just don't think Miss State can go toe to toe here so we'll lay the big number and join the masses. Go Johnny! Texas A&M -19

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