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Missouri

vs.

Georgia

College Football

Pick - Trends

10/12/13

This game could get really, really interesting. Missouri football is pumped up right now as they are undefeated at 5-0 and coming off a road SEC win. Georgia is banged up and hasn't really won convincingly this season. With all that said, the Bulldogs are still -7.5 point favorites at GTBets while the posted total at betonline is 67.

Georgia could be without its top two running backs in this game. Keith Marshall tore his ACL last week and Todd Gurley is 50-50 at this point. If neither can go, J.J. Green and Brendan Douglas will see the majority of carries. Green, a freshman, ran for 129 yards on 17 carries last week, so maybe it's not going to be a huge problem. The other injuries are in the passing game. With top wide receiver Malcolm Mitchell already out, Georgia lost two more receivers last weekend with Justin Scott-Wesley and Michael Bennett going down.

Due to injuries, it's a toss-up to how the Bulldogs are going to look. Fortunately, they still have the main component to the puzzle in quarterback Aaron Murray. Even with the injuries, Murray has managed 1,534 yards, 14 TDs, three INTs and a number of big wins (including the Tennessee come back with a depleted squad) this season.

Missouri's quarterback James Franklin looks to have made a leap in his senior season, already with 1,407 yards, 13 TDs and three INTs. He's been the main reason for this offense scoring more than 45 points per game. Putting 51 points on Vanderbilt on the road is no easy task. Franklin has been using three receivers regularly, with three guys that already have at least 22 receptions. Dorial Green-Beckham and L'Damian Washington have combined for nine touchdowns. Their running game also looks balanced and improved. Russell Hansbrough and Henry Josey have combined for 686 yards and nine touchdowns. Franklin also runs quite a bit and has 278 rushing yards.

Expect both teams to score in this game, because neither has been able to stop a decent offense this year. Georgia is seemingly in a close game every week. That includes its home game against North Texas, when they were tied in the third quarter.

Georgia won last year's matchup in Missouri, 41-20 even though they were outgained by 16 total yards. The Bulldogs scored the final 24 points to grab the win. They also held Franklin to 25 yards on 20 carries, which is a big reason for the victory.

The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games. The Bulldogs have similar numbers going 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven conference games and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games. Every number points to the over in the game, but that also means it's going to be pretty high. Georgia has not covered since it beat South Carolina four games ago, while Missouri has covered or pushed in every game this year.

Bettors at sportsbook.com are favoring Missouri in early betting action as 67% of the action has come in on the Tigers.

This game opened up at -11 and has been bet all the way down to -7.5 as of Friday. We definitely understand the line move. The numbers suggest a play on Missouri. They have much better yards per point numbers than South Carolina. Our model predicts a 4 point South Carolina win and you also have Missouri, ranked 25th, with a chance to knock off a higher ranked opponent and move right up in the rankings. All powerful stuff.

So why aren't we pulling the trigger on the undefeated team with the better numbers? Well, if ever there was a team that had the potential to be a paper tiger, it's Missouri. Just look at their first 4 wins this year. Murray St, Toledo, Indiana and Arkansas State. Hats off to Missouri for beating a pretty good Vandy team, but heck, you can see why there numbers are so good after playing all of those cupcakes.

Now look at Georgia's opponents. Clemson, LSU, South Carolina and Tennessee. Only one cupcake, North Texas. It's like comparing apples and oranges. Maybe Missouri is that good, and the numbers hold true here. But we wouldn't chance it. Especially after the major line move. If there's any value to be had at this point, it would be on the Georgia side as -7 or better.

But we pass.

 

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