NC State
vs.
Florida State
College Football
Pick
10/26/13
How good is this Florida State team? That’s the question everyone is asking after they dismantled Clemson on the road last weekend. After that win, a lot of people are putting them in the same tier as Alabama and Oregon. With those high hopes, the Seminoles will have a bull’s eye on their backs for the next six Games. It continues against NC State, the team that gave FSU its first loss last season. The Seminoles come in as heavy -29.5 point favorites at 5 dimes sportsbook.
Florida State knows they can’t get ahead of themselves. It’s what happened in last year’s Game against the Wolfpack as FSU was 17-point road favorites in that Game, yet ended up losing 17-16. While the Seminoles are at home now, they know it’s important to show up in every Game, or at least their coaches know that.
Freshman quarterback Jameis Winston has been nothing short of amazing this season and is finding his way into some Heisman talks. He doesn’t have the running abilities as some other guys like Manziel or Mariota, but his arm makes up for it. Winston is completing 71.3 percent of his passes and had probably his best Game against Clemson last weekend. He finished with 444 yards and three TDs in what was supposed to be a close Game. There were no answers for Winston and his receivers, mainly Rashad Greene, who finished with 146 yards and two TDs. FSU also has a solid run Game behind Devonta Freeman (469 yards, Four TDs), but when Winston is throwing like he has been, there’s no reason to stop passing.
NC State was set to have a respectable season, but knew it was going to be tough after losing QB Mike Glennon. So far, it’s been harder than imagined. The Wolfpack sit in last place in the Atlantic division with zero Conference wins and there isn’t an easy Game remaining on the Schedule for them to get that win. Their defense has actually been the strong suit, but stopping Winston and company won’t be an easy task.
The Wolfpack have only scored 23 points total in their last two Games against Wake Forest and Syracuse. Facing this Seminoles defense that just shutdown Tajh Boyd to 14 points, it’s going to be hard for quarterback Brandon Mitchell to get much going. Mitchell is set to return for his first Game since getting injured back in the season opener. His replacement, Pete Thomas, was struggling to do much with three TDs and eight INTs. Mitchell shouldn’t expect much from the running Game as the top two RBs, Matt Dayes (188 yards) and Shadrach Thornton (184 yards), haven’t done much. One would think that Mitchell is an improvement over Thomas, but he’s getting thrown to the wolves in this Game. It’s going to be tough for him to do much.
Without Mike Glennon, the only chance for NC State to keep this one close will be on defense. They stopped the Seminoles to 16 points last year and it’s going to take a lot to do that in two straight years.
The Wolfpack are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine road Games, but a solid 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 following a straight up loss. The Seminoles are solid across the board, covering in Four straight home Games and going 6-1 ATS for the season. The underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings (NC State was the underdog in all 16) between these teams, and NC State is 5-1 ATS in its last six contests in Tallahassee. However, the spread between these teams is the highest it’s been in over a decade.
The betting public will continue to back Florida State until given a reason not to, which to this point has not happened. The 5dimes.com betting percentages show us that 88% of the action as of Tuesday has come in on the Seminoles.
Pick – NC State +32.5