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NFL

Week 17

Picks

Regular Season

Finale

12/29/13

Panthers -6 over Falcons  - Feeling here is that the Panthers are a legitimate playoff team with a big time defense that has the potential to make a run. The Falcons on the other hand, are a big disappointment and should have little chance here. Check the turnover differential of these two. Panthers +12 and Falcons -8! Also check the defensive yards per point numbers. Panthers 20.4 and best in the NFL. Falcons 13.7 and among the worst. Anything under a TD is a Panthers call. Lay it.

 

Bears +3 over Packers - Rodgers is back but not so sure that will help. Expect there to be some rust. Neither team could get it done last week but expect the Bears to bounce back from an absolutely humiliating 54-11 loss to the Eagles last week. Home field is the difference here. Bears!

 

Titans -7 over Texans  - No interest in teams staying home for the post season. Texans can prove they deserve the #1 draft pick with a loss here.

 

Steelers -7 over Browns - Credit goes to the Steelers for not giving up on their season. It's a long shot but the Steelers still have a shot at the playoffs and our model shows what it thinks of the Steelers effort down the stretch by predicting a 39-21 Pitt win when using only the last 7 games worth of data.

 

Giants -3 -120 over Redskins - Again, no interest in teams playing out their season. Both teams here are a mess, but the Skins are a bigger mess than the Giants and the spot is only -3.

 

Bengals -6.5 over Ravens  - Bengals have found an offense at just the right time scoring 40+ points in their last 3 at home. Cinci is in but can gain a first round bye with a win here and a Pats loss. The Ravens had their chance at home last week and simply didn't show up. Now they need help to get in but first need to win on the road here. Not likely. Cinci is a legitimate playoff team that took care of business when they had to and figures to do so one more time. This is also a revenge call!

 

Jags +10.5 over Colts - Not sold on the Colts to begin with, but need to be careful here. The Colts can get a bye with a win and a loss by the Pats and Bengals which is a very long shot. Looks like a dangerous spot for the Colts to cover against a Jags team that has shown some fight down the stretch.

 

Jets +6 over Dolphins - Big time pressure on the fish here. They couldn't get it done when they controlled their own destiny in Buffalo and now must win here and get a little help. Their odds of getting in, if they win here, are very favorable as they only need the Bengals or Chargers to win their games. One or the other, not both, which is very likely. But they still need to win here and we expect the Jets to show up and make it difficult as Rex Ryan likely coaches his last game for the Jets. Dolphins by a field goal.

 

Vikings -3 over Lions - At one point the Lions looked like a playoff lock. What a disappointment. After dropping 3 straight we'd be surprised if they showed up here.

 

Patriots -8 over Bills - Lines get jacked up in games like this so you need to tread lightly. That being said, we'd be very surprised if the Pats didn't take care of business in a big way here. They sent a message to the rest of the league last week with their destruction of the Ravens. Last year they were in the similar situation in the final week,  needing to win to get a bye and they took out the Dolphins 28-0. We'd expect a similar effort here.

 

Bucs +12 over Saints - Lots of scenarios for the Saints, but the bottom line is, they need to win to get in. They can still get in with a loss but really can't afford to leave their season in the hands of other teams. It may not be as easy as it seems as the score between these two was just 16-14 the first time around. Sure, the Saints are a different team at home, a better team, but this line is jacked up because of the circumstances and we're not so sure the Saints can cover the spot. They come in having lost 3 of their last 4 games and face a mountain of pressure here.

 

Broncos -11.5 over Raiders  - Home field throughout the playoffs is on the line for the Broncos so, maximum effort is well worth it here. It's another jacked up line and they'll need to do it on the road but our model says Broncos by 19 to 30 points, so, we'll go with it.

 

Cardinals pk over 49ers - The 49ers are in the playoffs and any chance of getting a 1st round bye and or home field advantage involves the Seahawks and Panthers losing which is not likely. The Cards get in if they win and the Saints lose. Hey, who knows. But it looks as though the Cards may be the best team not to make the playoffs. They are dangerous here after winning in Seattle last week and need this more than the 49ers so we'll take a shot.

 

Chiefs +9.5 over Chargers - The Chargers get in with a win and a Dolphins and Ravens loss. Certainly possible. The more likely scenario is that the Dolphins find a way to beat the Jets and the Chargers will know their season is over before this game even kicks off. That will cause the line to drop on this game, at which point, if you already took +9.5 or even +10, you can go for the middle by backing the Chargers here : )

 

Seahawks -11.5 over Rams - If the Seahawks are the team everyone thinks they are, including us, we'd expect a statement game here, coming off a home loss last week. Anything less than a dominating double digit win here tells me the Seahawks aren't ready for prime time. I think they are and they leave no doubt here. Romp!

 

Eagles -6.5 over Cowboys - If Tony Romo was healthy, this could have been the ideal way to end the 2013 NFL regular season. But with Romo out for the year after back surgery, this game has lost a little luster. Kyle Orton will guide the ship for the Cowboys instead. But this game really seems to be a game between two teams going in opposite directions. A loss here and Jason Garrett likely loses his job and that might be warranted considering his performance. On the other side though, Chip Kelly comes in and takes a 4-12 team from a year ago and could finish 10-6 and in the playoffs. Our model kind of sums this game up with it's prediction using only the last 7 games of the season for data. Eagles 49 Cowboys 27.

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