Oklahoma State
vs.
Texas
Big 12
College Football
Pick
11/16/13
Both of these teams have nine wins to their name, yet it’s still hard to get a read on them. Oklahoma State is No. 12 in the BCS, but they don’t have a win against a Top 25 team and their only loss came against a bad West Virginia team. Texas has a nice win against Oklahoma, but non-Conference losses against BYU and Ole Miss don’t look great at the beginning of the year. Even with the similar Schedules, the Cowboys are -3 point road favorites.
Oklahoma State has covered in Four straight Games, which is why a lot of people are on them here. But how much does blowing out average teams actually mean? They had a nice win at Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders are not as good as once thought. The loss at West Virginia is tough, while their non-cover against Kansas State at home is pretty telling, as well.
The Longhorns are in the same situation, but have a couple better wins. Beating the Sooners by 16 points as 13.5-point underdogs was huge and then they destroyed TCU 30-7 as 3-point underdogs the next week. But then we look at how they allowed 40 points to the Mountaineers last weekend, and who knows how good they are.
This is a big Game for both teams atop the Big 12 standings. However, a future meeting against Baylor for both squads could mean trouble.
It looks like Clint Chelf will be the OK State quarterback, and he has been less than great. Chelf has completed less than 53 percent of his passes in Four straight Games. His ability to run is something Texas has to watch out for. The Cowboys don’t have a great rushing Game, but Desmond Roland (506 yards, 10 TDs) and Jeremy Smith (319 yards, nine TDs) find the end zone with ease. Leading receiver Josh Stewart got hurt last week, so that won’t help Chelf at all.
The Texas defense will need to show up in this one for the Longhorns to pull off the upset. If Chelf continues to have trouble completing passes, there’s no reason the Cowboys can’t be stopped.
On the other end, Texas has looked better than advertised, scoring at least 30 points in every Conference Games this year. All of that is happening even with Case McCoy at quarterback, who many people doubted. He’s thrown six interceptions in the past Four Games, but somehow the Longhorns have gotten out of those jams. With McCoy at QB, running backs Johnathan Gray and Malcolm Brown are getting a ton of carries. The two have combined for close to 40 carries in the past Four Games. Expect that to continue in an effort to keep OK State’s offense off the field. WR Jaxon Shipley got his first touchdown last week and will look to add more this weekend after he had three touchdowns against OK State last year.
The Cowboys defense has not done well on the road, allowing 30 points per Game in three Big 12 contests. There will be plenty of points in this one, with the winner likely reaching the 40-point mark.
In last year’s matchup, Texas won 41-36 on the road. However, Oklahoma State actually outgained the Longhorns by 130 yards in the loss. With not much changed from these teams, expect a similar output here.
The Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road Games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven road Games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Longhorns are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home Games vs. a team with a winning road record and 1-4 ATS in their last five Games following an ATS win. In this meeting, the favorite has covered in Four straight and the road team has covered in six straight.