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Oklahoma

vs.

Kansas State

College

Football Pick

11/23/13

Oklahoma was once thought to be a Top 10 team, but is now an underdog against unranked Kansas State. With already two conference losses, the Sooners are out of the Big 12 picture and likely won't be in a BCS bowl. After three straight losses for the Wildcats, they have won four in a row and are hoping to improve their bowl destination. The Wildcats are -3.5 point favorites over the No. 20 team in the nation at 5 dimes sportsbook with a total of 54.5

It took a little bit to get going for Kansas State with the loss of Heisman candidate Collin Klein from 2012. A 2-4 start which included an opening loss to North Dakota State was not how they wanted to start the season. Still, KSU has gotten things under control with four straight wins, including a big road win at Texas Tech.

The Sooners were thought to be a top team after starting the year 5-0, but a loss to Texas and then blowout against Baylor dashed those early thoughts. At this point, Oklahoma is still without a win against a current Top 25 team and finish the season with two tough road games.

Oklahoma's offense has been the main problem in losses, often struggling against better opponents. Quarterback Blake Bell was knocked out of last weekend's game and his status is up in the air. They may have to turn to former starter, Trevor Knight, who is completing just 48 percent of his passes on 63 attempts this year. He's a better runner, averaging 8.4 yards per carry on 37 totes. No matter who's at QB, OU will try and run the ball as much as possible with Damien Williams and Brennan Clay. The two haven't been dominant, but they have a combined 1,196 yards and 11 touchdowns.

The Kansas State defense has stayed strong for most of the year, even playing close against Baylor allowing just 35 points in that game. Giving up 31 points to TCU last week wasn't great, but this is still a solid unit that will give problems to Knight or Bell.

It's been KSU's offense that's picked it up lately, scoring at least 33 points in four straight games. The QB situation has worked to where Daniel Sams just destroys opponents on the ground, as he leads the team with 784 yards and 11 TDs. Jake Waters is the passing QB, but to mix it up, he does keep the ball plenty and is getting 8-10 carries per game. RB John Hubert (731 yards, eight TDs) and WR Tyler Lockett (825 yards, five TDs) are the other playmakers to watch out for.

These two teams played early in the 2012 season and Kansas State came away with a hard fought 24-19 led by Hubert's 130 rushing yards.

The Sooners are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 conference games and just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and 16-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. In this series, the road team has covered four straight games.

The public likes the Sooners getting the points here as 64% of the wagers taken thus far have come in on Oklahoma. This is according to the betting trends at the largest sportsbook in the world, sportsbook.com.

We're going to ride our score prediction model in this one. We use 3 sets of parameters when running our model. Full season stats, last 4 games and last 7 games. They all sat Kansas State covers this number. So, Kansas State -5

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