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Oregon

vs.

Arizona

PAC-12

College Football

Pick

Betting Trends

11/23/13

Neither one of these teams are riding much of a hot streak, but the trust on betting Oregon these days is starting to fade. The Ducks haven't covered in three of their last four games and opened as just -17.5 point favorites on the road at Arizona. After the Wildcats most recent loss, the line has shot up to as high as Oregon -21 at sportsbook.com and their betting trends show that 98% of the wagers taken thus far on the game have come in on the Ducks.

The Wildcats haven't been considered that bad of a team this year, and was even a favorite a couple weeks ago against UCLA. Unfortunately for them, they don't have any outstanding conference wins and after losing to Washington State last weekend, it doesn't look like they'll finish with a better record than last year.

After Oregon made it a regularity as usual of blowing out teams in their first six games, they've fallen back a little bit lately. Everyone knows about the loss at Stanford, but allowing 38 points to Washington State and struggling with Utah last Saturday are a bit worrisome for backers, although the public is still all over them.

Outside of the Stanford game, Oregon hasn't had many problems on the road. And since Stanford just lost, the Ducks are in line to win the Pac-12 North.

De'Anthony Thomas has returned to the backfield, but he isn't exactly getting a full dosage these days as Byron Marshall and Thomas Tyner both excelled in his absence. No matter, the Ducks have three viable RBs to use plus Marcus Mariota, which leads one of the top rushing units in the nation with 40 touchdowns as a group. Mariota has been flawless in the passing game as well for the most part, with 25 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Speedster receivers Josh Huff and Bralon Addison are tough to stop in this offense.

Arizona has lost two straight home games so that shouldn't have an effect here. The Wildcats haven't exactly been blown out this year, which is something they couldn't say last year. Stopping Oregon will be something else, but this defense is part of the reason the line isn't higher.

The Wildcats will need some better offense than what they put on the field last weekend against the Cougars. Running back Ka'Deem Carey can't do it all for Arizona and it shows on the scoreboard. He has 13 TDs on the year and has yet to rush for fewer than 119 yards. Quarterback B.J. Denker is lacking a bit in the passing game. Often better on his feet, Denker is only attempting 6.19 yards on each pass which is rather low considering he's completing less than 60 percent of his passes. If they can score more than 20 points here, it would be a success because it's tough to beat Oregon with a run-heavy attack, especially if you go down early.

The Ducks dominated this matchup last year winning 49-0 at home. The last time Arizona beat Oregon was back in 2007.

The Ducks are still 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games and 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. The Wildcats are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games and also 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games. The over has hit four of the last five times these teams have played.

Best way to go in this one might be with the total. Oregon has scored 42+ in all but one game this year while Arizona has shown that not only can they give up a lot of points, they can also score. We'll go over 67.5 in a game that should see plenty of fireworks.

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