Tennessee
vs.
Missouri
College Football
Pick – Trends
11/2/13
Missouri is a failed Fourth quarter and a couple missed field goals away from being undefeated. After last weekend’s crushing defeat against South Carolina, the Tigers biggest task this week will be to regroup and refocus. They’ll get the Volunteers, who have given a couple of the top SEC teams some trouble. Still, Missouri is a decent-sized -11 point favorite at home.
In the first ever meeting between these schools last year, it was a blood bath with Missouri winning on the road, 51-48, in Four overtimes. Even though Tyler Bray torched them for 404 yards, the balanced attack from the Tigers was key. Not to mention they held the Volunteers to just seven points in the second half.
Surprisingly, Missouri is still No. 9 in the BCS Standings and still lead the way in the SEC East. A loss here would be fatal to those Championship Game hopes. Maty Mauk has played the last two Games for injured James Franklin and has looked… okay. He’s not the most accurate of passers which hurts, but he’s not exactly throwing Games away. The Tigers were in a good spot to win last weekend, and the loss wasn’t really on Mauk. The good news for him is that he’ll finally get to face a less than stellar defense in Tennessee. That should give him some confidence after playing Florida and South Carolina in back-to-back weeks. Mauk’s trio of wide outs shouldn’t have many problems getting open. L’Damian Washington leads the way with 635 yards and eight TDs and scored on a 96 yarder against the Gamecocks.
The Tigers will be running plenty in this Game with a multitude of backs. Henry Josey, Russell Hansbrough and Marcus Murphy will also see the ball. The three have combined for 1,432 yards and 18 touchdowns. Tennessee’s defense has been better this season than in recent years, but they still aren’t shutting anyone down.
The big factor in this Game will be Missouri’s defense. Can they bounce back from what happened last weekend? Up to late in that Game, they were impressive, but once South Carolina got a boost from Connor Shaw, things changed.
The Vols like to run the ball a lot, more so than a year ago, so this matchup will probably look a little different. Rajion Neal already has 145 carries this year for 763 yards and nine touchdowns. Even against Alabama he managed 70 yards and a touchdown and would have had more if it weren’t for them getting blown out. If Neal can find room in this Game, Tennessee should keep it close. That’s as long as Justin Worley doesn’t throw too many interceptions. He already has eight on the year, but was looking better before the ‘Bama Game, playing solid against Georgia and South Carolina.
Worley won’t win this Game with his arm so it’ll come down to Missouri’s rush defense that stopped the Gamecocks to 75 yards on 35 carries last weekend. If that happens again, Missouri should win by a good margin.
The Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last five Conference Games and 4-0 ATS in their last Four Games following an ATS loss. The Tigers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight Games overall and 6-2 ATS in their last eight Conference Games.
Missouri has been a public team this year but not in this spot. The action is split right down the middle at 50%. You can view these betting trends for all sports by opening an account at 5dimes.com
The Vols have been able to stay close to Georgia and Florida and Our gut says they can do the same with Missouri. Not sure what to exoect from Mizu after last weeks heartbreaking OT loss to SC. Our model likes Mizu by 3 touchdowns so it’s Our model vs. Our gut here. We’ll side with the model, but just a lean. Missouri -10