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Texans

vs.

49ers

NFL Pick

Analysis

10/6/13

The 49ers host the Texans on Sunday Night football this week and the 49ers are currently a -5.5 point favorite at 5 dimes sportsbook with a posted total of 43.5. This game could very well be a game between two of the better teams in the NFL. Time will tell. But to this point, neither of  them is playing like a top NFL team.

Both of these teams come in at 2-2 and with horrendous yards per point numbers on both sides of the ball. The Texans numbers are 18.2 on offense and 9.6 on defense while the 49ers are 16.7 on offense and 12.5 on defense. To make it clear, those numbers would be very good, if they were opposite of what they are. In other words, a 9.6 on offense would be great and a 12.5 not too shabby. Likewise with the offensive numbers. If they were defensive numbers, they would be pretty damn good!

Turnovers are another key stat. Both of these teams are near the bottom of the NFL as both are -4 in turnover margin. Who are the best teams in the NFL when looking at turnover margin? The Titans, Chiefs, Colts and Bears lead the league. Add up their wins. Those teams also have very good yards per point numbers.

Our score prediction model tells a similar story. It predicts a final score of 23-23. It can't decide who's worse!

Bottom line here is, it's only 4 weeks in. Both of these teams have the opportunity to correct their early season problems and get things going in the right direction. Early season numbers can be a tad out of whack. But after 4 weeks, the numbers mentioned above indicate both of these teams have problems on both sides of the ball and quite frankly, are below average NFL teams. It will be interesting to see if either of them can right the ship. In the meantime, we have no choice but to take any points available in this one. Texans +6 (betonline)

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