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Texas A&M is likely going to close the season as underdogs in its last two games. That's what happens when you have a defense that's one of the worst in the conference. Both teams are coming off a bye so that shouldn't change much. With the better defense and viable offense, LSU is a -4 point favorite at home at 5 dimes sportsbook where you can bet the game at reduced juice.
The Tigers have three losses, but they have not lost at home yet, with their win against Auburn being the only one that stands out on the schedule. They've lost some tough games and know a BCS bowl is unlikely, but will be hoping to finish the year with two straight wins and get a respectable bowl game.
The Aggies have already lost two games and finish the season on the road against two quality opponents. With the SEC already out of reach for them, their hopes fall on making a BCS bowl. However, that would require wins in these last two games (at Missouri next weekend).
At this point, everyone knows what Texas A&M can do. Johnny Manziel can score on anyone, it's just his defense that can't stop anyone. Manziel posted 42 points against Alabama, and still lost by seven. They scored 41 points on Auburn, and lost by four. It's a given Manziel will score even on the road against a difficult team like LSU. He has 3,313 passing yards, 31 passing TDs and 11 INTs to go along with 611 yards on the ground with eight rushing TDs. They don't have the same kind of rushing game as last year which has hurt in the long run. Mike Evans is one of the best receivers in the game, averaging 22.2 yards per reception for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns.
LSU can be exploited, as seen in losses this year. It wouldn't be surprising if we got another 40-40 type of game. Stopping Manziel won't be easy, but coming off a bye Les Miles has a chance to at least contain him to less than 40 points.
The Tigers will undoubtedly need their offense to step up and score points. They've been better this year, but that still hasn't been enough in the SEC, scoring 38 points per game. Since a nice start, Zach Mettenberger has come back to earth a bit and has five interceptions in his last three games. He'll likely have solid numbers in this game as long as he targets Odell Beckham (1,051 yards, eight TDs) and Jarvis Landry (972 yards, eight TDs), which is all he ever does anyway. Running back Jeremy Hill may get a healthy dose early on to try and keep Manziel off the field as long as possible. He's averaging 6.8 yards per carry to go with 13 TDs and is quietly having a solid season.
On the road, the Aggies defense had a tough time controlling Arkansas and Ole Miss, so it's unlikely they'll be able to keep down Mettenberger for fewer than 30 points. This defense is the reason LSU is favored.
The Aggies are 2-4 ATS in their last six games, but a solid 4-2 ATS in their last six road games. The Tigers are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games and only 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. LSU actually stopped Manziel last year and came away with a 24-19 win. Can it be done two years in a row?
In early betting action at sportsbook.com, the public is backing Johnny Football and the Aggies to the tune of 64%.
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