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WEEK 6

NFL

PICKS

 

10/13/13

Here we go game by game through the NFL card and offer a selection on each game. The whacky NFL isn't disappointing us this year with upsets and crazy outcomes week after week.  The cream eventually rises to the top in the NFL though, at which point, handicapping it becomes much easier. You just have to wait it out. In the meantime, here's our take on this week.

 

Raiders +8 over Chiefs - The numbers actually support a play on the Chiefs but we're siding with the Raiders here. The Chiefs have some great defensive numbers, but their offense isn't really a threat to run away with a game. The Raiders are coming off a win over the Chargers and look plenty capable of keeping this one within the number.

 

Eagles -2 over Bucs - What a garbage game. A Bucs team that can't score against an Eagles team that can't stop anyone. You gotta score points to win football games. We'll take the Eagles.

 

Packers -2.5 over Ravens - This game breaks down pretty even with the numbers we like to use, including our score prediction model which has the Packers on top by 2. So we'll zero in on one stat that may come into play. The Ravens rank 27th in the NFL rushing the football. The Packers "D" ranks 5th against the run.

 

Browns +3 over Lions - Another game that breaks down just about dead even. Hey, when in doubt, take the home dog. Besides, our model likes the Browns straight up.

 

Panthers +2.5 over Vikings - The Panthers have a very good defensive yards per point number of 20.8. That combined with the cloud hanging over the Vikings due to the Adrian Peterson situation AND the fact that our model likes the Panthers straight up, has us on Carolina here.

 

Texans/Rams over 42 - Not sure what to make of this one. The numbers we like to look at suggest the Texans are simply one of the worst teams in the NFL. Their yards per point numbers are pathetic. They can't stop the run and rank 26th in points scored and 25th in points allowed. Lucky for them, the Rams rank 28th in points allowed. Despite the Texans shortcomings, our model still likes them to cover here and also likes a high scoring game. We'll take the lesser of two evils and go with the over.

 

Jets -1.5 over Steelers - How bout them Jets! Yeah, this is a public play because the Steelers are that bad. But sometimes, you simply have to play the better team. The Jets rank #2 against the run while the Steelers rushing game ranks 31st. Can't win if you can't run. It's a small spot, so we'll lay it.

 

Bills +6.5 over Bengals - This looks like it could be a good one. The Bengals have a very good defense but doesn't have the offense where we'd feel comfortable laying more than a field goal on the road. Our model has the Bengals but just by 2.

 

Titans +13.5 over Seahawks - Seahawks off a loss and coming home to the best home field edge in the NFL. But the Titans have a decent defense, good enough to keep them in this one as both teams figure to be running the ball quite a bit. Our model has the Seahawks on top by not by enough in a game that also goes just under the total.

 

Jags/Broncos over 53 - Our model says the Broncos will go over this total all by themselves.

 

Cardinals +10.5 over 49ers - Cards are 3-2 with one of their 2 losses coming by just a field goal. Niners on a mini roll, but that comes after laying two eggs in a row against the Colts and Seahawks. We'll take the points and hope the Cards can hang.

 

Patriots/Saints Under 50.5 - Great matchup here. But it's the two defenses in this matchup that have been shining the brightest. Bettors see Brady and Brees and think points, and lots of them. It might be just the opposite here. Our model has this going way under.

 

Cowboys -5.5 over Redskins - The Cowboys are simply the better team here, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. Going with the better offense at home at a reasonable price.

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