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Week 7

Free NFL Picks

with Analysis

10/20/13

We take a look around the NFL for week 7 and offer our opinions and in some instances, our best guess for this weeks action. No question the highlight of the week will be the Sunday Night clash between Peyton Manning and his former team. There may be way too much mediocrity in the NFL these days, but they are still able to come up with a marquee game or two on a weekly basis, which makes things interesting. On to the picks.

 

Pats -3.5 over Jets - The Jets playing the Pats close and also beating the Falcons a couple of weeks ago all go towards keeping this number low. But really, a  19-6 loss to the pedestrian Steeler offense? Brady and company should fare better. The Patriot offense should be a little further along and more well oiled than their first game back in September. Jets -11 in turnover margin. That's 30th in the NFL. Also note the Pats defense with a 21.5 yards per point number, among the best in the NFL.

 

Chargers -7.5 over Jags - The Jags are one of the worst teams in recent memory. The Chargers have wins over Dallas and Indy.

 

Chiefs -6 over Texans - The Texans may be worse than the Jags. In fact, their numbers say they are. What happened to this team? The Chiefs are +12 in turnover margin, best in the NFL. That Jags are -12, 2nd to last in the NFL. That's a difference of 24 of you're keeping track at home. KC owns the best ypp defensive number in the NFL, 28.3. The Texans have the worst number, 8.6 (I've never seen a number that low). Likewise on the offensive side of the ball. The NFL is whacky from week to week. Anything can, and often does happen. But the numbers suggest this one is no contest.

 

Lions -2.5 over Bengals - Two evenly matched teams. The nod here goes to the Lions due to having the better offense and being at home.

 

Bills +7.5 over Dolphins - Another good matchup. The Dolphins look to be the slightly better team but the Bills are playing teams tight and the Dolphins aren't the type of team to put much of a margin between themselves and their opponents on the scoreboard. Down to the wire.

 

Bears pk over Redskins - Maybe a name change will help the Skins? Simply going with the team that's been finding ways to win over the team that's been finding ways to lose. Wouldn't touch this one in the real word as we could see Washington winning this one.

 

Cowboys +2.5 over Eagles - Two high scoring games in this series a year ago and this one look to follow suit. Our model has the Cowboys winning this one 41-34 so we'll go with it.

 

Panthers -7 over Rams - Rams won two straight while scoring 34 and 38 in the process. But, against the Texans and Jags. The Panthers defense should be the story in this one.

 

Falcons -6.5 over Bucs - The Falcons have had a week to think about their home loss to the Jets on Monday Night football. Expect a focused effort here from a Falcons team that has been money at home over the years. To be clear, the Falcons are down a notch. Something is wrong. But the Bucs non existent offense can't keep up here.

 

Titans +3 over 49ers - pick em might be a better line here. Neither of these teams has really done much this year. The only significant win for the Niners came in week 1 against Green Bay. They lost to Seattle and Indy and own wins over the Rams, Texans and Cards. Our model likes the Titans straight up and other numbers we like to use suggest this one is a toss up so we'll take the points here.

 

Browns +10 over Packers - Our model likes the Packers here but these two teams actually have near identical yards per points numbers which suggests the Browns can hang here.

 

Ravens +2.5 over Steelers - This used to be a matchup for the ages. Not anymore. No reason to like the Steelers here, or, in any game for that matter. Especially as a fav.

 

Colts +6 over Broncos - Great way to end the day. Should be a good one. The way we see it, if Indy can hang 34 points on the Seahawks defense, they can stay in this one. The Colts have the better defensive yards per point numbers while the Broncos have the better offensive numbers. Manning gets the W but it's closer than you think.

 

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