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Week 9 NFL Picks

11/3/13

 

Just a quick look around the NFL this week with some picks and a few words about each game.

 

Panthers -7 -115 over Falcons - Mostly -7.5's on the board as of this writing but there is one -7-115. Hopefully more pop up. Gotta go with the superior team at home in this matchup. Night and day here. Panthers have one of the best yards per point defensive numbers in the NFL and are 2nd in the league in points allowed. Falcons are dead last rushing the football and -5 in TO margin compared with the Panthers at +6. Our model not only likes the Panthers here but also suggests under 44.5 is worth a look.

 

Cowboys -9.5 over Vikings - Vikings have lost 4 games by more than the posted line here. The Cowboys rank dead last against the pass which is a concern here when backing them but we simply don't feel that the Vikings can exploit that weakness. Dallas has covered every home game this year. Make it another.

 

Saints -6 over Jets - This line was as low as -3 this week. Can't play this game for real after a 3 point line move. That would be foolish. But still think the number is low even at -6. Jets not exactly a team that has proven it can keep up with a team like the Saints. The Jets do have a decent defense and are #1 against the run but in terms of the ratio of points given up to yards gained by opponents, they aren't very efficient. Their defensive yards per point number of 11.9 is among the worst in the NFL as is their offensive number of 18.5. Saints numbers are just the opposite and very good. Our model also likes the under 45.5.

 

Rams +3 over Titans - Not much to like on either side here. We'll simply go against the public here with the thinking that Jeff Fisher finds a way to beat his former team. Just a lean though.

 

Bills +4 over Chiefs - Chiefs are among the best in the NFL and are getting it done with defense. Using yards per point to make a line here, The Chiefs would be favored by at least a TD and again, that's on the heels of their defensive numbers. But while our model recognizes that great defense, it also recognizes the Chiefs inability to extend a margin in games. The model predicts a 2 point KC win so perhaps there's some value with the home dog Bills. The model also predicts that this one falls well under the posted total of 40.

 

Redskins pk over Chargers - Not much to get interested about either way here. We'll back Skins to win this one at home. They went toe to toe with the Broncos on the road before being overcome in the 4th quarter so they should be able to go toe to toe and end up on top against San Diego, at home.

 

Raiders -2.5 over Eagles - Too many question marks for the Eagles who in fact aren't very good even without the question marks.

 

Seahawks -14.5 over Bucs - Normally double digits like this would be an automatic play on the dog in the NFL. But in this spot, a rookie QB against the Seahawks defense at home? No thanks.

 

Browns +2 over Ravens - Not much separating these two. Our model   suggests this one is a toss up so we'll take any points available with the home dog Browns who if they win this will snap an 11 game losing streak to the Ravens.

 

Patriots -6.5 over Steelers - Many predicting this one will be close but we just don't see it. Sure, the Pats aren't the same as in years past but neither are the Steelers. The Pats are simply better across the board on both sides of the ball and figure to be able to extend a margin against a Steelers team ranked 28th in the NFL in points scored.

 

Colts -1 over Texans - Yeah, it seems too easy and probably is. That's the NFL for you. But heck, the yards per point numbers here suggest the difference between these two teams is 18 points on a neutral field. Texans rank 30th in points scored and 27th in points allowed. Colts rank 8th in each category. At -1, we're just being asked to pick the winner here and that can't be the Texans. Colts it is.

 

 

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