Clemson
vs.
Florida State
College Football
Pick with Analysis
9/20/14
Last year’s Game between these teams can’t be replaced soon enough for Clemson. With Florida State coming in as -5 point favorites, the Tigers, ranked higher than FSU at the time, believed they were getting overlooked. However, things went awry from the start as the Seminoles dominated in a 51-14 win. In a series that has been back-and-forth over the last decade, Florida State is a -20 point home favorite at 5 dimes sportsbook.
While we’re just two Games into the season, neither one of these teams has looked as good as their 2013 versions. Clemson failed to make much of their Georgia Game, losing by 24 points. Florida State hasn’t done that much either, scraping by against Oklahoma State and only beating Citadel by 25 points. There are still plenty of questions about this FSU team and not many believe they can match last season’s success.
For starters, Heisman winner Jameis Winston has underwhelmed in two Games of action. Through the air he only has three touchdowns and two interceptions. For his standards, he struggled against the Cowboys in the opener. OUtside of Rashad Greene (15 receptions, 283 yards), Winston hasn’t really looked elsewhere in the passing Game. Their ground Game is also lacking with Karlos Williams (4.1 yards per carry) leading the group. Winston has less playmakers around him than a year ago and it’s showing.
It’s the same on the defensive end where they lost a number of key players. For starters, Citadel rushed for 250 yards against them last Game, which usually doesn’t happen against the best teams in the nation.
Clemson is in a similar situation with a lot of big-name guys gone from their roster. With Cole Stoudt at the helm, the offense isn’t quite as explosive as made evident with his one passing touchdown and one interception. Simply not good enough, especially when they start playing better teams. The running Game is a massive committee with five different running backs having at least nine carries. That doesn’t include the two QBs, who have double-digit rushes as well. The receiving Game isn’t bad, but they don’t have a dominant target anymore.
The difference for the Tigers is that their defense is pretty good. While that wasn’t the case against Georgia, there should be a noticeable difference from this Game to the one they played in 2013 against FSU. Clemson may have trouble scoring though, which won’t help their chances in covering. That means it could fall on the defense to stop Winston in order to keep this Game close.
The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Games overall and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Conference matchups. For the Seminoles, they have covered Four straight Conference Games and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home matches. In this meeting, the over has hit five of the last six times and the home team has covered in 12 of the last 16.
***Note – FSU Starting QB Jameis Winston is suspended for the 1st half!