Florida
vs.
Alabama
College Football
Pick – Analysis
9/20/14
SEC football is starting to heat up and the conference’s dominance may be at an all-time high. They currently have five teams in the Top 10 and three more teams in the Top 20. Florida is looking to enter the rankings, but as seen last week, have a long way to go. Alabama is currently a -14.5 point favorite at sportsbook.ag
In last season’s home opener, the Crimson Tide beat LSU 38-17 as 14-point favorites. These teams haven’t played each other the last couple years, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be completely unfamiliar with one another. The coaches definitely aren’t unfamiliar. Alabama and Nick Saban have won the last three meetings by a combined 101-29 Scoreline.
It’ll be interesting to see how bettors look at last week’s iffy win for the Gators as they needed three overtimes to beat Kentucky in Gainesville. They moved the ball fine offensively through ground and air, but surprisingly were lit up for 369 passing yards by Kentucky’s Patrick Towles. The Gators are usually known for a stout pass defense so that was a bit unexpected.
Alabama hasn’t really had a challenge since the first week against West Virginia so there are people questioning their No. 3 ranking in the polls. The Crimson Tide have blown out bad teams and struggled against a mediocre Big 12 team. Some of that could be due to Blake Sims at QB, but the defense wasn’t its dominant self against the Mountaineers.
The one area to watch will be the ‘Bama rushing Game. When they cover Games, it’s usually because they get the ground Game going and it’s impossible to stop them. If T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry get going, it will be close to impossible for Florida to win. When ‘Bama runs well, which is often the case, they control the Game. Sims hasn’t been bad either completing 75 percent of his passes, but it’s the running Game that leads the team.
For Florida to cover, it’s going to fall on quarterback Jeff Driskel. While he’s not amazing, he’s kind of everything for the offense as seen last year after he got hurt. Matt Jones and Kelvin Taylor are a solid one-two punch in the backfield, but finding room against the Tide’s defensive line will be tough to come by. When teams beat ‘Bama, it’s usually because the opposing QB didn’t make a mistake and they were efficient.
Driskel probably doesn’t fall into that category, but this isn’t the same super-dominant defense of Alabama that they’ve had the last couple years. Driskel will look often to Demarcus Robinson, who already has 21 grabs for 339 yards and three TDs in two Games. The Tide will probably aim to stop him first.
Neither team has positive trends. The Gators are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 Games overall while Alabama hasn’t covered in their last seven Games overall. That basically means they are a bit overrated because of their name. However, in the last 10 meetings between these schools, the Crimson Tide are 8-1-1 ATS.
Alabama has won the last three in this series, in 2009, 2010 and 2011, all by double digits. That was when Florida actually had a winning record (they were 4-8 last year!). In fact in 2009 Florida was undefeated and played Alabama in the SEC Title Game, and lost 32-13.
The future of Will Muschamp and quite frankly the Florida program hangs in the balance from here forward for the Gators. We’re not convinced that Florida can match up with the Tide for 4 quarters. However, they should be able to hang for a half. With that in mind, and considering the importance of this Game for Florida, we’ll go ahead and back them in the 1st quarter and the 1st half. From the 3rd quarter on, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Alabama take over. Florida + 1st quarter and Florida +1st half